Q1 2026 Risk Index
20 Markets. Four Dimensions. Every Score Sourced to Public Record.
$64 billion in U.S. data center projects have been blocked or delayed since 2023. RealClear scored the 20 markets that matter most across four dimensions of entitlement risk — regulatory complexity, infrastructure readiness, opposition density, and approval timeline. All 10 of the hardest markets are getting worse, not better. The gap between the lowest score (2) and the highest (88) is the difference between a court injunction and a 30-day building permit.
- All 10 Hardest markets have a Worsening trajectory. Not one is stabilizing.
- The 80-point spread between the hardest and clearest markets represents 2-3 years of calendar risk and $50M-$260M in sunk diligence cost (per RealClear buyer research).
- Water is the new opposition vector. 4 of the 10 Hardest markets face water-driven challenges — San Marcos, Oregon OH, Nobles County, and Google Palo.
- Two markets — Pryor, Oklahoma and Storey County, Nevada — operate under regulatory structures that effectively eliminate standard entitlement friction. Their scores (88 and 86) are not anomalies; they are engineered outcomes.
- Only one market in the entire index shows an Improving trajectory: Temple, Texas. Every other market is Stable or Worsening.
Transparent Methodology
How We Score
Four dimensions, weighted by how much they actually kill or clear a project. Every score decomposes into evidence you can verify.
Regulatory Risk
30 ptsMeasures zoning classification, approval pathway type (by-right, CUP, rezoning), moratorium status, and regulatory trajectory. Higher scores indicate clearer regulatory paths.
Infrastructure Readiness
25 ptsMeasures utility capacity, grid interconnection availability, water supply adequacy, and infrastructure investment commitments. Higher scores indicate better infrastructure readiness.
Opposition Density
25 ptsMeasures organized opposition groups, petition scale, public hearing attendance, political consequences (elections, recalls), and legal challenges. Higher scores indicate less opposition.
Approval Timeline
20 ptsMeasures historical approval durations, number of sequential approval steps, legal challenges affecting timeline, and demonstrated fast-track capabilities. Higher scores indicate faster approvals.
Score Interpretation
Weight Rationale
Regulatory Risk and Infrastructure Readiness kill projects. Opposition slows them but also drives regulatory change. Approval Timeline is partly downstream of the other three.
Scores reflect entitlement risk as of Q1 2026. Markets change rapidly.
A clear entitlement path does not guarantee project success.
Infrastructure delivery timelines are separate from entitlement risk.
This index is AI-generated with human review. Verify independently.
High Entitlement Risk
The 10 Hardest Markets for Data Center Entitlements
All 10 are getting worse. Moratoriums, organized opposition, hostile boards, active litigation. Know the fight before you enter it.
Clearest Entitlement Paths
10 Markets Where the Entitlement Path Is Clearest
Not guaranteed — but the evidence favors approval. Proven regulatory frameworks, supportive local government, and infrastructure that actually exists.
Index Findings
What the data shows.
10 of 10
Hardest Markets Worsening
Every single Hardest market has a Worsening trajectory. Not one is stabilizing.
$64B
Projects Blocked
In U.S. data center projects blocked or delayed since 2023. $98B delayed in a single quarter of 2025.
28pt
Score Gap
Between the hardest and clearest markets. The difference between a 36-month political fight and a 6-month build.
1
Market Cut
In the Clearest list is actively worsening. Mesa, Arizona scored 72 but the governor is pursuing tax incentive repeal.
Get Your Site Scored
The index shows market-level risk. For site-level intelligence — your specific parcel, your specific use, your specific scale — request a scored intelligence brief.
Three fields. Where, what, and how big. Everything else is derived from public records.
20 markets scored. 15 states. Every claim verified.
