20 Markets. Four Dimensions. Public Records Behind Every Score.
RealClear reviewed active data-center applications, moratorium bills, council votes, opposition filings, water disclosures, and utility interconnection queues across 20 U.S. markets. From fragmented public records to a scored market-level triage view, not a parcel-specific site score. Data Center Watch has publicly documented more than $64 billion in blocked or delayed projects; the index turns that kind of market signal into a sourced triage view. The gap between the lowest score (2) and the highest (88) is the difference between a court injunction and a short administrative permit path.
This is market-level triage, not a parcel score. Use the index to decide where portfolio attention belongs; use the cited site memo to decide whether a specific site deserves LOI, PSA, DD, counsel, utility, and consultant spend.
- All 10 Hardest markets have a Worsening trajectory. Not one is stabilizing.
- The 80-point spread between the hardest and clearest markets represents years of calendar exposure and a materially different first-pass diligence posture.
- Water is the new opposition vector. 4 of the 10 Hardest markets face water-driven challenges — San Marcos, Oregon OH, Nobles County, and Google Palo.
Risk Index map — 20 markets plotted
20 markets, one view
Click a dot to jump to the analysis below
Ten markets where the calendar dies. All ten are getting worse.
Moratoriums, organized opposition, hostile boards, active litigation. Every market on this list has a Worsening trajectory. Know the fight before you commit capital.
DeKalb County, Georgia
DeKalb County shut the door and locked it.
San Marcos, Texas
Hays County County
The Edwards Aquifer hit record lows.
Prince William County, Virginia
A circuit court judge declared the rezonings void ab initio.
Franklin Township, Indiana
Marion County County
Google assembled 467 acres of Indiana farmland through a shell company called Deep Meadow Ventures.
Nobles County, Minnesota
Data centers are categorically prohibited in Nobles County's agricultural zones.
City of Oregon, Ohio
Lucas County County
The residents of Oregon, Ohio did something rare: they turned a data center fight into a mayoral election.
City of St. Louis, Missouri
St.
King George County, Virginia
King George County approved Amazon's rezoning, then elected a new Board of Supervisors that canceled the performance agreement, initiated a downzoning of 893 acres back to agricultural, and told Amazon's team to — according to the public record — "go to hell." The BZA denied vested rights 4-0.
City of Palo, Iowa
Linn County County
Google spent months negotiating with Linn County.
City of Santa Clara, California
Santa Clara County County
Santa Clara has a data center problem that money cannot solve: the grid is full.
Ten markets where the path is clearest. Earned, not guaranteed.
Proven regulatory frameworks, supportive local government, and infrastructure that actually exists. The evidence favors approval. Start your portfolio screening here.
Pryor / MidAmerica Industrial Park, Oklahoma
Mayes County County
Google has expanded at MidAmerica Industrial Park seven times since 2011 without a single documented opposition hearing.
Storey County (TRIC), Nevada
A Development Agreement locked in since February 2000 — before the iPhone, before cloud computing, before anyone imagined what a hyperscale data center would be.
Abilene, Texas
Taylor County County
Abilene annexed 800 acres, wrote a dedicated Data Building Code, created a DC-specific utility tariff, approved a 1,375-acre industrial park unanimously, and the state legislature rejected an attempt to repeal data center tax exemptions by a 6-3 vote.
Papillion, Nebraska
Sarpy County County
Sarpy County did something almost no jurisdiction has done: it put "Data Centers" in the zoning code by name.
Clarksville, Tennessee
Montgomery County County
Google has operated in Clarksville since 2019.
Cheyenne, Wyoming
Laramie County County
Wyoming has a dedicated Data Building Code, DC-specific utility tariffs, and a legislature that rejected an attempt to repeal data center tax exemptions by 6-3.
Lebanon, Indiana
Boone County County
Eighty miles from Franklin Township — where Google withdrew under community pressure — Meta broke ground on a $10B campus inside the LEAP Innovation District on February 11, 2026.
Council Bluffs, Iowa
Pottawattamie County County
Google has been in Council Bluffs for 18 years.
Mesa, Arizona
Maricopa County County
Fifteen data centers on 1,500 acres in under a decade.
Temple, Texas
Bell County County
Temple is the only market in the entire index with an Improving trajectory.
The index is the triage step. Site screening is the next one.
A 20-site portfolio uses the Risk Index the same way an acquisition memo uses comparables: as market triage before the site-specific cited site memo decides whether the calendar starts spending real money.
Pull every market in your pipeline against the index. The hardest 10 carry a clearer cost-of-no — calendar slip, counsel spend, political risk all quantified. The clearest 10 carry the inverse: faster path, cleaner record, lower variance.
Hand only the survivor sites to your team for full RealClear site screening. Portfolio scores tell you which sites deserve a cited site memo and which should be killed at the index level before counsel reads page one of the UDO.
Every market score sources to the public record. When IC asks why this site and not that one, the answer is in the index — not gut feel. Same standard your counsel uses on page one of any underwriting memo.
Where the index ends. Where the site memo begins.
The index scores 20 markets. The cited site memo scores one site: zoning posture, approval pathway, community posture, comparable outcomes, material constraints, known unknowns, and next professional questions. Use the index to choose which sites deserve a site-specific site memo. Show us the parcel. We've already seen the playbook.
Four dimensions. Weighted by what kills projects.
Claims trace to primary sources. Every market score decomposes into evidence you can verify. Methodology open, weights published, caveats listed. The site memo uses a different, parcel-specific scoring frame.
Read the research notes →Regulatory Risk
30 ptsMeasures zoning classification, approval pathway type (by-right, CUP, rezoning), moratorium status, and regulatory trajectory. Higher scores indicate clearer regulatory paths.
Infrastructure Readiness
25 ptsMeasures utility capacity, grid interconnection availability, water supply adequacy, and infrastructure investment commitments. Higher scores indicate better infrastructure readiness.
Opposition Density
25 ptsMeasures organized opposition groups, petition scale, public hearing attendance, political consequences (elections, recalls), and legal challenges. Higher scores indicate less opposition.
Approval Timeline
20 ptsMeasures historical approval durations, number of sequential approval steps, legal challenges affecting timeline, and demonstrated fast-track capabilities. Higher scores indicate faster approvals.
Score interpretation
Weight rationale
Regulatory Risk and Infrastructure Readiness kill projects. Opposition slows them but also drives regulatory change. Approval Timeline is partly downstream of the other three.
- Scores reflect entitlement risk as of Q1 2026. Markets change rapidly.
- A clear entitlement path does not guarantee project success.
- Infrastructure delivery timelines are separate from entitlement risk.
- This index is source-cited with human review. Verify independently.
What the data shows
10 of 10
Hardest worsening
Every Hardest market has a Worsening trajectory. Not one is stabilizing.
$64B+
Publicly documented delays
Data Center Watch documents blocked or delayed projects as a separate market baseline.
28pt
Score gap
Between hardest and clearest. The difference between a contested political path and a clearer administrative path.
1
Clearest at risk
Mesa, Arizona scored 72 but the governor is pursuing tax-incentive repeal. Watch this list.
The index scores markets. Brief the parcel.
The index tells you which markets cost the calendar. The cited site memo tells you whether your specific site survives the local fight: zoning posture, approval path, community posture, comparables, material constraints, known unknowns, and next professional questions. Three fields: where, what, and how big. Public-record findings are cited; consultant-needed answers stay consultant-needed.
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20 markets scored · 15 states · Source-backed claims
