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A RealClear Research publicationQ12026 Risk Index

20 Markets. Four Dimensions. Public Records Behind Every Score.

RealClear reviewed active data-center applications, moratorium bills, council votes, opposition filings, water disclosures, and utility interconnection queues across 20 U.S. markets. From fragmented public records to a scored market-level triage view, not a parcel-specific site score. Data Center Watch has publicly documented more than $64 billion in blocked or delayed projects; the index turns that kind of market signal into a sourced triage view. The gap between the lowest score (2) and the highest (88) is the difference between a court injunction and a short administrative permit path.

This is market-level triage, not a parcel score. Use the index to decide where portfolio attention belongs; use the cited site memo to decide whether a specific site deserves LOI, PSA, DD, counsel, utility, and consultant spend.

  • All 10 Hardest markets have a Worsening trajectory. Not one is stabilizing.
  • The 80-point spread between the hardest and clearest markets represents years of calendar exposure and a materially different first-pass diligence posture.
  • Water is the new opposition vector. 4 of the 10 Hardest markets face water-driven challenges — San Marcos, Oregon OH, Nobles County, and Google Palo.
20 markets scored15 states249+ source-backed claimsMethodology-transparent

Risk Index map — 20 markets plotted

20 markets, one view

Click a dot to jump to the analysis below

10 Hardest10 Clearest
Dot size scales with score extremity. Coordinates are city/county-seat centroids; the index scores markets, not individual parcels.
02THE 10 HARDEST

Ten markets where the calendar dies. All ten are getting worse.

Moratoriums, organized opposition, hostile boards, active litigation. Every market on this list has a Worsening trajectory. Know the fight before you commit capital.

1

DeKalb County, Georgia

2
MoratoriumWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

DeKalb County shut the door and locked it.

Regulatory
0/30
Infrastructure
0/25
Opposition
2/25
Timeline
0/20
Read analysis
2

San Marcos, Texas

Hays County County

8
DeniedWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

The Edwards Aquifer hit record lows.

Regulatory
3/30
Infrastructure
4/25
Opposition
1/25
Timeline
0/20
Read analysis
3

Prince William County, Virginia

12
OngoingWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

A circuit court judge declared the rezonings void ab initio.

Regulatory
3/30
Infrastructure
5/25
Opposition
0/25
Timeline
4/20
Read analysis
4

Franklin Township, Indiana

Marion County County

13
WithdrawnWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Google assembled 467 acres of Indiana farmland through a shell company called Deep Meadow Ventures.

Regulatory
3/30
Infrastructure
10/25
Opposition
0/25
Timeline
0/20
Read analysis
5

Nobles County, Minnesota

14
OngoingWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Data centers are categorically prohibited in Nobles County's agricultural zones.

Regulatory
2/30
Infrastructure
5/25
Opposition
5/25
Timeline
2/20
Read analysis
6

City of Oregon, Ohio

Lucas County County

28
OngoingWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

The residents of Oregon, Ohio did something rare: they turned a data center fight into a mayoral election.

Regulatory
10/30
Infrastructure
8/25
Opposition
5/25
Timeline
5/20
Read analysis
7

City of St. Louis, Missouri

33
OngoingWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

St.

Regulatory
8/30
Infrastructure
15/25
Opposition
5/25
Timeline
5/20
Read analysis
8

King George County, Virginia

34
OngoingWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

King George County approved Amazon's rezoning, then elected a new Board of Supervisors that canceled the performance agreement, initiated a downzoning of 893 acres back to agricultural, and told Amazon's team to — according to the public record — "go to hell." The BZA denied vested rights 4-0.

Regulatory
12/30
Infrastructure
10/25
Opposition
8/25
Timeline
4/20
Read analysis
9

City of Palo, Iowa

Linn County County

38
OngoingWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Google spent months negotiating with Linn County.

Regulatory
10/30
Infrastructure
16/25
Opposition
7/25
Timeline
5/20
Read analysis
10

City of Santa Clara, California

Santa Clara County County

42
OngoingWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Santa Clara has a data center problem that money cannot solve: the grid is full.

Regulatory
14/30
Infrastructure
6/25
Opposition
12/25
Timeline
10/20
Read analysis
03THE 10 CLEAREST

Ten markets where the path is clearest. Earned, not guaranteed.

Proven regulatory frameworks, supportive local government, and infrastructure that actually exists. The evidence favors approval. Start your portfolio screening here.

1

Pryor / MidAmerica Industrial Park, Oklahoma

Mayes County County

88
ApprovedStableHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Google has expanded at MidAmerica Industrial Park seven times since 2011 without a single documented opposition hearing.

Regulatory
27/30
Infrastructure
22/25
Opposition
21/25
Timeline
18/20
Read analysis
2

Storey County (TRIC), Nevada

86
ApprovedStableHIGH SOURCE GRADE

A Development Agreement locked in since February 2000 — before the iPhone, before cloud computing, before anyone imagined what a hyperscale data center would be.

Regulatory
27/30
Infrastructure
19/25
Opposition
22/25
Timeline
18/20
Read analysis
3

Abilene, Texas

Taylor County County

84
ApprovedStableHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Abilene annexed 800 acres, wrote a dedicated Data Building Code, created a DC-specific utility tariff, approved a 1,375-acre industrial park unanimously, and the state legislature rejected an attempt to repeal data center tax exemptions by a 6-3 vote.

Regulatory
24/30
Infrastructure
23/25
Opposition
20/25
Timeline
17/20
Read analysis
4

Papillion, Nebraska

Sarpy County County

84
ApprovedStableHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Sarpy County did something almost no jurisdiction has done: it put "Data Centers" in the zoning code by name.

Regulatory
24/30
Infrastructure
22/25
Opposition
22/25
Timeline
16/20
Read analysis
5

Clarksville, Tennessee

Montgomery County County

82
ApprovedStableHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Google has operated in Clarksville since 2019.

Regulatory
24/30
Infrastructure
20/25
Opposition
22/25
Timeline
16/20
Read analysis
6

Cheyenne, Wyoming

Laramie County County

79
ApprovedStableHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Wyoming has a dedicated Data Building Code, DC-specific utility tariffs, and a legislature that rejected an attempt to repeal data center tax exemptions by 6-3.

Regulatory
24/30
Infrastructure
21/25
Opposition
18/25
Timeline
16/20
Read analysis
7

Lebanon, Indiana

Boone County County

78
OngoingStableHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Eighty miles from Franklin Township — where Google withdrew under community pressure — Meta broke ground on a $10B campus inside the LEAP Innovation District on February 11, 2026.

Regulatory
25/30
Infrastructure
19/25
Opposition
15/25
Timeline
19/20
Read analysis
8

Council Bluffs, Iowa

Pottawattamie County County

77
ApprovedStableHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Google has been in Council Bluffs for 18 years.

Regulatory
22/30
Infrastructure
20/25
Opposition
20/25
Timeline
15/20
Read analysis
9

Mesa, Arizona

Maricopa County County

72
OngoingWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Fifteen data centers on 1,500 acres in under a decade.

Regulatory
20/30
Infrastructure
21/25
Opposition
16/25
Timeline
15/20
Read analysis
10

Temple, Texas

Bell County County

70
OngoingImprovingHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Temple is the only market in the entire index with an Improving trajectory.

Regulatory
20/30
Infrastructure
19/25
Opposition
17/25
Timeline
14/20
Read analysis
04HOW TO USE IT

The index is the triage step. Site screening is the next one.

A 20-site portfolio uses the Risk Index the same way an acquisition memo uses comparables: as market triage before the site-specific cited site memo decides whether the calendar starts spending real money.

Step 01
Triage the portfolio

Pull every market in your pipeline against the index. The hardest 10 carry a clearer cost-of-no — calendar slip, counsel spend, political risk all quantified. The clearest 10 carry the inverse: faster path, cleaner record, lower variance.

Step 02
Pick where to deepen

Hand only the survivor sites to your team for full RealClear site screening. Portfolio scores tell you which sites deserve a cited site memo and which should be killed at the index level before counsel reads page one of the UDO.

Step 03
Defend the call to IC

Every market score sources to the public record. When IC asks why this site and not that one, the answer is in the index — not gut feel. Same standard your counsel uses on page one of any underwriting memo.

Where the index ends. Where the site memo begins.

The index scores 20 markets. The cited site memo scores one site: zoning posture, approval pathway, community posture, comparable outcomes, material constraints, known unknowns, and next professional questions. Use the index to choose which sites deserve a site-specific site memo. Show us the parcel. We've already seen the playbook.

05METHODOLOGY

Four dimensions. Weighted by what kills projects.

Claims trace to primary sources. Every market score decomposes into evidence you can verify. Methodology open, weights published, caveats listed. The site memo uses a different, parcel-specific scoring frame.

Read the research notes →

Regulatory Risk

30 pts

Measures zoning classification, approval pathway type (by-right, CUP, rezoning), moratorium status, and regulatory trajectory. Higher scores indicate clearer regulatory paths.

Infrastructure Readiness

25 pts

Measures utility capacity, grid interconnection availability, water supply adequacy, and infrastructure investment commitments. Higher scores indicate better infrastructure readiness.

Opposition Density

25 pts

Measures organized opposition groups, petition scale, public hearing attendance, political consequences (elections, recalls), and legal challenges. Higher scores indicate less opposition.

Approval Timeline

20 pts

Measures historical approval durations, number of sequential approval steps, legal challenges affecting timeline, and demonstrated fast-track capabilities. Higher scores indicate faster approvals.

Score interpretation

0-20
Critical Risk
21-40
High Risk
41-60
Moderate Risk
61-80
Low Risk
81-100
Clear Path

Weight rationale

Regulatory Risk and Infrastructure Readiness kill projects. Opposition slows them but also drives regulatory change. Approval Timeline is partly downstream of the other three.

  • Scores reflect entitlement risk as of Q1 2026. Markets change rapidly.
  • A clear entitlement path does not guarantee project success.
  • Infrastructure delivery timelines are separate from entitlement risk.
  • This index is source-cited with human review. Verify independently.

What the data shows

10 of 10

Hardest worsening

Every Hardest market has a Worsening trajectory. Not one is stabilizing.

$64B+

Publicly documented delays

Data Center Watch documents blocked or delayed projects as a separate market baseline.

28pt

Score gap

Between hardest and clearest. The difference between a contested political path and a clearer administrative path.

1

Clearest at risk

Mesa, Arizona scored 72 but the governor is pursuing tax-incentive repeal. Watch this list.

06BEFORE YOU COMMIT

The index scores markets. Brief the parcel.

The index tells you which markets cost the calendar. The cited site memo tells you whether your specific site survives the local fight: zoning posture, approval path, community posture, comparables, material constraints, known unknowns, and next professional questions. Three fields: where, what, and how big. Public-record findings are cited; consultant-needed answers stay consultant-needed.

Your first cited site memo within 24 hours.

20 markets scored · 15 states · Source-backed claims

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About This Index

RealClearPublished Q1 2026

RealClear gives real estate development teams cited entitlement research before they commit serious diligence spend. This index scores U.S. markets across four dimensions of data-center entitlement risk: regulatory complexity, infrastructure readiness, community opposition density, and approval timeline. It is market-level triage, not a parcel score. Submit a specific parcel and you get a 24-hour cited brief whose claims trace to primary sources.

Read the full methodology
20Markets Scored
15Index States
249+Source-Backed Claims

Ready to screen a property candidate? RealClear returns a 24-hour cited brief covering zoning posture, approval path, community posture, comparable outcomes, open questions, and next questions for counsel, civil, utility, or the local team.