Q1 2026 RISK INDEX · FOUNDER-REVIEWED EDITORIAL SNAPSHOT
Before the parcel, read the market.
Twenty U.S. markets, four weighted dimensions, and the public record behind each score. Read this dated market picture before deciding which property needs a closer look.
2,000,000+ references to the public record1,352 jurisdictions with local records on file390,000+ source documents on fileCited source records
01 / THE MAP
Twenty markets, plotted where they sit.
Red marks the hardest ten; green marks the clearest. Dots locate markets, not parcels. Open one to jump to its scored row and source path.
20 markets, one view
Click a dot to jump to the analysis below
10 Hardest10 Clearest
Dot size scales with score extremity. Coordinates are city/county-seat centroids; the index scores markets, not individual parcels.
02 / THE 10 HARDEST
Where the approval path tightens.
In this Q1 2026 snapshot, all ten carry a Worsening trajectory. Read each score beside its dimensions and analysis. Dated public acts appear where a cited record is available.
DeKalb County shut the door and locked it. A 100-day moratorium became a unanimous extension through June 2026. The draft text amendment requires 500-foot setbacks, 2,640-foot transit separation, and special land use permits for anything larger than a closet. Renew DeKalb Inc., the Party for Socialism and Liberation, and 75-100 residents who packed a November zoning meeting made sure of it.
On the record ·
DeKalb County Board of Commissioners: Voted unanimously to extend the data center moratorium through June 23, 2026.
The Edwards Aquifer hit record lows. The governor declared a drought emergency. And a developer asked to build a data center that would consume 70,000 gallons a day in a town fighting over every drop. San Marcos denied it three times in 12 months. The final vote came at 2:14 AM after an 8-hour hearing with 130+ speakers. The overflow room erupted in cheers.
On the record ·
San Marcos City Council: Voted 5-2 to deny the Preferred Scenario Map amendment.
A circuit court judge declared the rezonings void ab initio. The Court of Appeals barred construction. The Board of Supervisors initiated a zoning text amendment concerning data center uses permitted by right and by special use permit. And at least 25 planned data centers were canceled across Virginia in a single year. The Prince William Digital Gateway is the most legally contested data center project in America — 27 hours of hearings, a 4-3-1 vote, and three years later, not a single building has gone up.
On the record ·
Prince William Board of County Supervisors: Voted unanimously, with Chair Jefferson abstaining, to initiate a zoning text amendment concerning data center uses permitted by right and by special use permit.
Google assembled 467 acres of Indiana farmland through a shell company called Deep Meadow Ventures. The community found out. Protect Franklin Township collected 2,550 petition signatures, the Civic League organized hearings, and billboards went up across Indianapolis. Seventeen of twenty-five city councilors turned against the project. Google withdrew minutes before the vote.
Data centers are categorically prohibited in Nobles County's agricultural zones. The planning commission voted against a text amendment to change that. The county attorney said a moratorium would be "legally moot" because the existing ordinance already blocks data centers. And the Minnesota legislature introduced SF 4298 — a statewide moratorium bill — just in case anyone had ideas.
On the record ·
Nobles County Planning Commission: Voted against the text amendment allowing data centers in the agricultural district.
The residents of Oregon, Ohio did something rare: they turned a data center fight into a mayoral election. Steven Salander ran against data centers and won with 63% of the vote. The incumbent attributed his loss to supporting the project. The city administrator resigned weeks later. Now Ohio is advancing a constitutional amendment to ban data centers over 25 MW statewide.
St. Louis was one of the last major cities where data centers were as-of-right. Not anymore. Mayor Spencer issued Executive Order 92. The Board of Aldermen passed Resolution 111 by 9-2. The moratorium failed by a single vote — 7-8. And 12,000 people signed a petition saying "No More Data Centers in St. Louis." The developer paused the project and failed a 44-question survey for three months.
King George County approved Amazon's rezoning, then elected a new Board of Supervisors that canceled the performance agreement, initiated a downzoning of 893 acres back to agricultural, and told Amazon's team to — according to the public record — "go to hell." The BZA denied vested rights 4-0. Amazon filed a circuit court appeal. The county chair said he was ready to "go to war."
Google spent months negotiating with Linn County. The county passed a data center ordinance with 1,000-foot setbacks, 55 dBA noise limits, and water balance studies. Eight days later, Google informed the county it would pursue annexation into Palo — a town of 1,100 people with no data center regulations. Supervisor Scheetz called it "fundamentally wrong." The county published a press release. This is jurisdiction shopping, documented through public records.
Santa Clara has a data center problem that money cannot solve: the grid is full. Two completed data centers — 96 MW combined — are sitting empty because Silicon Valley Power cannot deliver electricity. The Planning Commission has denied three consecutive projects. The chair said data centers are "unto itself, its own entity. There is little it will add to the community." A $450 million grid upgrade is scheduled for 2028. Until then, you can build a data center in Santa Clara. You just cannot turn it on.
Clearer market context is not permission for a particular site. Read the score beside its dimensions, then check the dated analysis before committing to a parcel.
Google has expanded at MidAmerica Industrial Park seven times since 2011 without a single documented opposition hearing. The park operates under a public trust with regulatory sovereignty — no building permits, no inspections, no zoning approvals. There are 50 million gallons per day of water capacity with 32 million available. School property values are up 957% since 2009. This is what entitlement success looks like when the structure is engineered for it.
A Development Agreement locked in since February 2000 — before the iPhone, before cloud computing, before anyone imagined what a hyperscale data center would be. TRIC's I-2 Heavy Industrial zoning pre-approves data centers with 7-day grading permits and 30-day building permits. Seven operators are building or operating here. Tract has assembled 11,000 acres and plans $100 billion over 10 years. The county has 4,000 residents. The power plants produce 900+ MW.
Abilene annexed 800 acres, wrote a dedicated Data Building Code, created a DC-specific utility tariff, approved a 1,375-acre industrial park unanimously, and the state legislature rejected an attempt to repeal data center tax exemptions by a 6-3 vote. Lancium has a fully ERCOT-approved 1.2 GW interconnection. Crusoe is building a 900 MW campus for Microsoft. Abilene is not just approving data centers. It is recruiting them.
Sarpy County did something almost no jurisdiction has done: it put "Data Centers" in the zoning code by name. Section 22 of the IL district lists them explicitly. Meta has expanded five times since 2016. Google broke ground on a 260-acre campus. OPPD — ranked second nationally for data center power share — approved 2.5 GW of new generation. The neighbors, according to the Omaha World-Herald, "have only positive things to say."
Google has operated in Clarksville since 2019. The data center is permitted by-right in commercial and industrial zones through administrative review — no CUP, no public hearing, no council vote required. TVA provides the power. Tennessee expanded DC tax incentives in 2024 with HB 2182. After 12+ search queries across local news, Reddit, Change.org, and municipal records, we found zero organized opposition. The biggest controversy is whether TVA should keep a coal plant open to serve data center demand.
Wyoming has a dedicated Data Building Code, DC-specific utility tariffs, and a legislature that rejected an attempt to repeal data center tax exemptions by 6-3. Cheyenne proactively annexed 923 acres for Microsoft, 960 acres for Meta, and approved a 1,375-acre industrial park for Crusoe/Tallgrass — unanimously. Black Hills Energy operates data center tariff programs starting at 13 MW. The opposition? Scattered concerns about construction noise and water. No project blocked.
Eighty miles from Franklin Township — where Google withdrew under community pressure — Meta broke ground on a $10B campus inside the LEAP Innovation District on February 11, 2026. The city council approved the incentive package unanimously. The plan commission approved the 1,500-acre development plan. Boone County has not enacted a moratorium. Same state, opposite outcome. The difference is a PUD that designates data centers as a permitted use in the Industrial Mega Site subdistrict.
Google has been in Council Bluffs for 18 years. In that time, the company has invested $6.8 billion, announced $7 billion more, and helped MidAmerican Energy deliver 100% carbon-free energy equivalent. The zoning process runs through Planned Industrial, with city staff and planning commission consistently recommending approval. A Change.org petition opposing the Edged project gathered 111 signatures. That is the entirety of documented opposition in a market with nearly two decades of data center operations.
Fifteen data centers on 1,500 acres in under a decade. Mesa adopted Ordinance 5957 — a dedicated DC zoning category requiring PAD overlay in industrial zones — and SRP provides dedicated infrastructure including a 69 kV switchyard for Meta. But the trajectory is Worsening. Governor Hobbs called for repealing data center tax incentives: "The incentives have done their job." The adjacent city of Chandler unanimously rejected an AI data center. Mesa is the clearest market in the index with a Worsening trajectory — and the gap is closing.
Temple is the only market in the entire index with an Improving trajectory. Every data center vote has been unanimous. Rowan's 300 MW project is under construction on 700 acres. Meta invested $800 million. A separate 269-acre rezoning is advancing through the planning commission. Oncor is building new transmission infrastructure. And Texas counties legally cannot impose moratoriums. Temple is not merely approving data centers — it is building an economy around them.
Use this index to decide where to look harder. A property still needs its own location, use, source record and professional questions. The current public engagement is one customer-submitted property and a cited site memo; it does not predict approval.
05 / METHODOLOGY
How the scores were made.
Version 1.0, dated 2026-03-29. Four weighted dimensions total 100 points. A higher score means a clearer market-level entitlement path in this Q1 2026 snapshot, not a likelihood of approval for a parcel.
Regulatory Risk
30 points
Measures zoning classification, approval pathway type (by-right, CUP, rezoning), moratorium status, and regulatory trajectory. Higher scores indicate clearer regulatory paths.
Infrastructure Readiness
25 points
Measures utility capacity, grid interconnection availability, water supply adequacy, and infrastructure investment commitments. Higher scores indicate better infrastructure readiness.
Opposition Density
25 points
Measures organized opposition groups, petition scale, public hearing attendance, political consequences (elections, recalls), and legal challenges. Higher scores indicate less opposition.
Approval Timeline
20 points
Measures historical approval durations, number of sequential approval steps, legal challenges affecting timeline, and demonstrated fast-track capabilities. Higher scores indicate faster approvals.
Read the score / 0–100
0-20Critical Risk
21-40High Risk
41-60Moderate Risk
61-80Low Risk
81-100Clear Path
Why these weights
Regulatory Risk and Infrastructure Readiness kill projects. Opposition slows them but also drives regulatory change. Approval Timeline is partly downstream of the other three.
What the score cannot settle
Scores reflect entitlement risk as of Q1 2026. Markets change rapidly.
A clear entitlement path does not guarantee project success.
Infrastructure delivery timelines are separate from entitlement risk.
The index frames a market. The cited site memo addresses the submitted property, its proposed use, the public evidence and the professional questions that remain. It does not predict approval.
The site-memo queue targets a delivery window confirmed at acceptance of the completed property submission. Complex or thin-record sites can take longer.