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Q1 2026 RISK INDEX · FOUNDER-REVIEWED EDITORIAL SNAPSHOT

20 Markets. Four Dimensions. Public Records Behind Every Score.

RealClear reviewed active data-center applications, moratorium bills, council votes, opposition filings, water disclosures, and utility interconnection queues across 20 U.S. markets — and scored each market for triage. This is market-level triage, not a parcel-specific site score. Data Center Watch counted at least 75 data-center projects worth roughly $130 billion blocked or delayed by local opposition in Q1 2026 alone; this index turns that market signal into a sourced, scored view. The gap between the lowest score (2) and the highest (88) is the difference between a court injunction and a short administrative permit path.

Use the index to decide where portfolio attention belongs; use the cited site memo to decide whether a specific site deserves LOI, PSA, DD, counsel, utility, and consultant spend.

  • All 10 Hardest markets have a Worsening trajectory. Not one is stabilizing.
  • The 80-point spread between the hardest and clearest markets represents years of calendar exposure and a materially different first-pass diligence posture.
  • Water is the new opposition vector. 4 of the 10 Hardest markets face water-driven challenges — San Marcos, Oregon OH, Nobles County, and Google Palo.
  • Two markets — Pryor, Oklahoma and Storey County, Nevada — operate under regulatory structures that avoid much of the standard entitlement friction. Their scores (88 and 86) are not anomalies; they are engineered outcomes.
  • Only one market in the entire index shows an Improving trajectory: Temple, Texas. Every other market is Stable or Worsening.
20markets scored15states249+source-backed claimsOpen methodology
2,000,000+ references to the public record1,352 jurisdictions deeply mapped390,000+ source documents on fileevery claim cited
01 · THE MAP

Twenty markets, plotted where they sit.

Red is the hardest ten; green the clearest. Every dot opens the market's scored analysis.

20 markets, one view

Click a dot to jump to the analysis below

10 Hardest10 Clearest
Dot size scales with score extremity. Coordinates are city/county-seat centroids; the index scores markets, not individual parcels.
02 · THE 10 HARDEST

Ten markets where the calendar dies. All ten are getting worse.

Moratoriums, organized opposition, hostile boards, active litigation. Every market on this list has a Worsening trajectory. Know the fight before you commit capital.

MoratoriumWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

DeKalb County shut the door and locked it.

NAMED IN THE RECORD · Commissioner Nicole Massiah — DeKalb County Commissioner (Opposed)

Regulatory
0/30
Infrastructure
0/25
Opposition
2/25
Timeline
0/20
Read analysisCase file
2

San Marcos, Texas

Hays County County

8
DeniedWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

The Edwards Aquifer hit record lows.

NAMED IN THE RECORD · Hays County Judge Ruben Becerra — County Judge (Opposed)

Regulatory
3/30
Infrastructure
4/25
Opposition
1/25
Timeline
0/20
Read analysisCase file
OngoingWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

A circuit court judge declared the rezonings void ab initio.

NAMED IN THE RECORD · Supervisor Bob Weir — Gainesville District Supervisor (deceased) (Opposed)

Regulatory
3/30
Infrastructure
5/25
Opposition
0/25
Timeline
4/20
Read analysisCase file
4

Franklin Township, Indiana

Marion County County

13
WithdrawnWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Google assembled 467 acres of Indiana farmland through a shell company called Deep Meadow Ventures.

NAMED IN THE RECORD · Michael-Paul Hart — City-County Councilor, District 20 (Opposed)

Regulatory
3/30
Infrastructure
10/25
Opposition
0/25
Timeline
0/20
Read analysisCase file
OngoingWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Data centers are categorically prohibited in Nobles County's agricultural zones.

NAMED IN THE RECORD · Planning Commissioner Jay Clarke — Planning Commissioner (Opposed)

Regulatory
2/30
Infrastructure
5/25
Opposition
5/25
Timeline
2/20
Read analysisCase file
6

City of Oregon, Ohio

Lucas County County

28
OngoingWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

The residents of Oregon, Ohio did something rare: they turned a data center fight into a mayoral election.

NAMED IN THE RECORD · Mayor Steven Salander — Mayor (elected November 2025) (Opposed)

Regulatory
10/30
Infrastructure
8/25
Opposition
5/25
Timeline
5/20
Read analysisCase file
OngoingWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

St.

NAMED IN THE RECORD · Armory Innovation District Developers — Developer group (Supported)

Regulatory
8/30
Infrastructure
15/25
Opposition
5/25
Timeline
5/20
Read analysisCase file
OngoingWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

King George County approved Amazon's rezoning, then elected a new Board of Supervisors that canceled the performance agreement, initiated a downzoning of 893 acres back to agricultural, and told Amazon's team to — according to the public record — "go to hell." The BZA denied vested rights 4-0.

NAMED IN THE RECORD · T.C. Collins — Board Chair (2024) (Opposed)

Regulatory
12/30
Infrastructure
10/25
Opposition
8/25
Timeline
4/20
Read analysisCase file
9

City of Palo, Iowa

Linn County County

38
OngoingWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Google spent months negotiating with Linn County.

NAMED IN THE RECORD · Supervisor Sami Scheetz — Linn County Supervisor (Opposed)

Regulatory
10/30
Infrastructure
16/25
Opposition
7/25
Timeline
5/20
Read analysisCase file
10

City of Santa Clara, California

Santa Clara County County

42
OngoingWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Santa Clara has a data center problem that money cannot solve: the grid is full.

NAMED IN THE RECORD · Planning Commissioner Priya Cherukuru — Planning Commissioner (Opposed)

Regulatory
14/30
Infrastructure
6/25
Opposition
12/25
Timeline
10/20
Read analysisCase file
03 · THE 10 CLEAREST

Ten markets where the path is clearest. Earned, not guaranteed.

Proven regulatory frameworks, supportive local government, and infrastructure that actually exists. The evidence favors approval. Use it as context before choosing the one property that needs a cited memo.

ApprovedStableHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Google has expanded at MidAmerica Industrial Park seven times since 2011 without a single documented opposition hearing.

Regulatory
27/30
Infrastructure
22/25
Opposition
21/25
Timeline
18/20
Read analysis
ApprovedStableHIGH SOURCE GRADE

A Development Agreement locked in since February 2000 — before the iPhone, before cloud computing, before anyone imagined what a hyperscale data center would be.

Regulatory
27/30
Infrastructure
19/25
Opposition
22/25
Timeline
18/20
Read analysis
3

Abilene, Texas

Taylor County County

84
ApprovedStableHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Abilene annexed 800 acres, wrote a dedicated Data Building Code, created a DC-specific utility tariff, approved a 1,375-acre industrial park unanimously, and the state legislature rejected an attempt to repeal data center tax exemptions by a 6-3 vote.

Regulatory
24/30
Infrastructure
23/25
Opposition
20/25
Timeline
17/20
Read analysis
4

Papillion, Nebraska

Sarpy County County

84
ApprovedStableHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Sarpy County did something almost no jurisdiction has done: it put "Data Centers" in the zoning code by name.

Regulatory
24/30
Infrastructure
22/25
Opposition
22/25
Timeline
16/20
Read analysis
5

Clarksville, Tennessee

Montgomery County County

82
ApprovedStableHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Google has operated in Clarksville since 2019.

Regulatory
24/30
Infrastructure
20/25
Opposition
22/25
Timeline
16/20
Read analysis
6

Cheyenne, Wyoming

Laramie County County

79
ApprovedStableHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Wyoming has a dedicated Data Building Code, DC-specific utility tariffs, and a legislature that rejected an attempt to repeal data center tax exemptions by 6-3.

Regulatory
24/30
Infrastructure
21/25
Opposition
18/25
Timeline
16/20
Read analysis
7

Lebanon, Indiana

Boone County County

78
OngoingStableHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Eighty miles from Franklin Township — where Google withdrew under community pressure — Meta broke ground on a $10B campus inside the LEAP Innovation District on February 11, 2026.

Regulatory
25/30
Infrastructure
19/25
Opposition
15/25
Timeline
19/20
Read analysis
8

Council Bluffs, Iowa

Pottawattamie County County

77
ApprovedStableHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Google has been in Council Bluffs for 18 years.

Regulatory
22/30
Infrastructure
20/25
Opposition
20/25
Timeline
15/20
Read analysis
9

Mesa, Arizona

Maricopa County County

72
OngoingWorseningHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Fifteen data centers on 1,500 acres in under a decade.

Regulatory
20/30
Infrastructure
21/25
Opposition
16/25
Timeline
15/20
Read analysis
10

Temple, Texas

Bell County County

70
OngoingImprovingHIGH SOURCE GRADE

Temple is the only market in the entire index with an Improving trajectory.

Regulatory
20/30
Infrastructure
19/25
Opposition
17/25
Timeline
14/20
Read analysis
04 · HOW TO USE IT

The index is the triage step. Site screening is the next one.

A development pipeline can use the Risk Index as market context, the same way an acquisition memo uses comparables. The paid engagement remains one site-specific cited memo.

Step 01
Read the market context

Compare the market in front of you with the index. The hardest 10 make the downside explicit — calendar slip, counsel spend, and political risk. The clearest 10 show the inverse: faster path, cleaner record, lower variance.

Step 02
Pick where to deepen

Choose the one property that needs deeper work. Market scores provide context; the cited property memo does the site-specific research before counsel reads page one of the UDO.

Step 03
Defend the call to IC

Every market score sources to the public record. When IC asks why this site and not that one, the answer is in the index — not gut feel. Same standard your counsel uses on page one of any underwriting memo.

Where the index ends. Where the site memo begins.

The index scores 20 markets. The cited site memo scores one site: zoning posture, approval pathway, community posture, comparable outcomes, material constraints, known unknowns, and next professional questions. Use the index to choose which sites deserve a site-specific site memo. Show us the parcel. We've already seen the playbook.

05 · METHODOLOGY

Four dimensions. Weighted by what kills projects.

Claims trace to primary sources. Every market score breaks down into evidence you can verify. Methodology open, weights published, caveats listed. The site memo uses a different, parcel-specific scoring frame.

Read the research notes →

Regulatory Risk

30 pts

Measures zoning classification, approval pathway type (by-right, CUP, rezoning), moratorium status, and regulatory trajectory. Higher scores indicate clearer regulatory paths.

Infrastructure Readiness

25 pts

Measures utility capacity, grid interconnection availability, water supply adequacy, and infrastructure investment commitments. Higher scores indicate better infrastructure readiness.

Opposition Density

25 pts

Measures organized opposition groups, petition scale, public hearing attendance, political consequences (elections, recalls), and legal challenges. Higher scores indicate less opposition.

Approval Timeline

20 pts

Measures historical approval durations, number of sequential approval steps, legal challenges affecting timeline, and demonstrated fast-track capabilities. Higher scores indicate faster approvals.

Score interpretation

0-20
Critical Risk
21-40
High Risk
41-60
Moderate Risk
61-80
Low Risk
81-100
Clear Path

Weight rationale

Regulatory Risk and Infrastructure Readiness kill projects. Opposition slows them but also drives regulatory change. Approval Timeline is partly downstream of the other three.

  • Scores reflect entitlement risk as of Q1 2026. Markets change rapidly.
  • A clear entitlement path does not guarantee project success.
  • Infrastructure delivery timelines are separate from entitlement risk.
  • This index is source-cited with human review. Verify independently.

What the data shows

10 of 10

Hardest worsening

Every Hardest market has a Worsening trajectory. Not one is stabilizing.

$130B

Blocked or delayed, Q1 2026 (Data Center Watch)

Data Center Watch counted at least 75 data-center projects worth roughly $130 billion blocked or delayed by local opposition in Q1 2026 alone — the backdrop this 20-market index scores against.

28pt

Score gap

Between hardest and clearest. The difference between a contested political path and a clearer administrative path.

1

Clearest at risk

Mesa, Arizona scored 72 but the governor is pursuing tax-incentive repeal. Watch this list.

06 · BEFORE YOU COMMIT

The index scores markets. Brief the parcel.

The index tells you which markets cost the calendar. The cited site memo tells you whether your specific site survives the local fight: zoning posture, approval path, community posture, comparables, material constraints, known unknowns, and next professional questions. Three fields: where, what, and how big. Public-record findings are cited; consultant-needed answers stay consultant-needed.

The site-memo queue targets a delivery window confirmed at acceptance of the completed property submission. Complex or thin-record sites can take longer.

20 markets scored · 15 states · Source-backed claims

About This Index

RealClearPublished Q1 2026

RealClear gives real estate development teams cited entitlement research before they commit serious diligence spend. This index scores U.S. markets across four dimensions of data-center entitlement risk: regulatory complexity, infrastructure readiness, community opposition density, and approval timeline. It is market-level triage, not a parcel score. Submit a specific parcel and you get a reviewed, cited brief whose claims trace to primary sources.

Read the full methodology
20Markets Scored
15Index States
249+Source-Backed Claims

Ready to screen a property candidate? RealClear returns a reviewed, cited brief covering zoning posture, approval path, community posture, comparable outcomes, open questions, and next questions for counsel, civil, utility, or the local team. We confirm the delivery window when we accept your completed property submission. Complex or thin-record sites may require more research.

Screen a site