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OngoingWorseningRisk Index — Q1 2026
King George County — Amazon Data Center
King George County, King George County, Virginia
34/100
HIGH RISK
Trajectory: Virginia General Assembly considered 60+ data center bills in 2026. New Governor Spanberger pledged scrutiny. Active downzoning and litigation.
Last updated 2026-03-29
Community risk review · blocking-market signal
King George County — Amazon Data Center's score is backed by the record of participants driving it.
RealClear computes a Community Impact Score (0–100) for every named participant in this jurisdiction's entitlement record. Blocking markets typically carry elected critical-stance CIS leaders at the top of the record — visible months before any filing would land on their hearing docket. Open the cross-referenced case files below for the full per-actor weight breakdown.
King George County approved Amazon's rezoning, then elected a new Board of Supervisors that canceled the performance agreement, initiated a downzoning of 893 acres back to agricultural, and told Amazon's team to — according to the public record — "go to hell." The BZA denied vested rights 4-0. Amazon filed a circuit court appeal. The county chair said he was ready to "go to war."
Anti-DC candidates won the November 2023 Board elections. The new board canceled the performance agreement, downzoned Amazon's parcels, and denied vested rights.
BZA voted 4-0 to deny Amazon's vested rights request in March 2025. Amazon filed a circuit court appeal in April 2025.
Board Chair T.C. Collins publicly stated willingness to "go to war" with Amazon. This is the documented record — not hyperbole.
King George is in Dominion Energy territory but NOT in the core Northern Virginia data center infrastructure corridor. Grid capacity for multi-hundred-MW loads is uncertain.
Virginia is the epicenter of anti-DC legislation — 60+ bills in the 2026 General Assembly session.
Dimension Breakdown
Four dimensions that determine entitlement feasibility.
Regulatory Risk
30 pts
Rezoning from agricultural required. County approved Dahlgren West unanimously but downzoned Amazon parcels. BZA denied vested rights request 4-0. Active circuit court litigation.
Score: 12/30. Rezoning approved, then downzoned. Vested rights denied 4-0. Active circuit court litigation. The county government is using every tool available to reverse its own prior approval.
Infrastructure Readiness
25 pts
Dominion Energy territory but NOT in core Northern Virginia DC infrastructure corridor. County considering BESS for additional power. Grid capacity uncertain for multi-hundred-MW loads.
Score: 10/25. Dominion Energy territory but outside the Northern Virginia DC corridor. No evidence of dedicated DC infrastructure or interconnection programs for this site.
Opposition Density
25 pts
Politically effective opposition: anti-DC candidates won November 2023 board elections, leading to performance agreement cancellation, downzoning initiation, and board infighting. Horti-Group USA filed lawsuit challenging GEV approval.
Score: 8/25. The opposition won the election. That is more consequential than any petition. Anti-DC board now controls the approval process. Horti-Group USA filed a separate lawsuit.
Approval Timeline
20 pts
Multi-year process risk: rezoning approved September 2023, performance agreement approved December 2023, canceled January 2024, downzoning initiated April 2024, BZA denial March 2025, circuit court petition April 2025.
Score: 4/20. Multi-year process: rezoning September 2023, performance agreement December 2023, canceled January 2024, downzoning April 2024, BZA denial March 2025, circuit court appeal April 2025. No resolution in sight.
Key Findings
What the record shows.
Board of Supervisors initiated downzoning of Amazon's 893 acres from industrial back to agricultural in April 2024.
Fredericksburg Free PressBZA voted 4-0 to deny Amazon's vested rights determination request in March 2025.
FXB Advance: BZA denies AmazonAmazon filed circuit court appeal in April 2025 challenging the BZA decision.
FXB Advance: Amazon Files AppealBoard Chair T.C. Collins publicly signaled willingness to "go to war" with Amazon.
Fredericksburg Free PressKey Officials
The decision-makers on record.
T.C. Collins
Board Chair (2024)
Documented Record
Publicly signaled willingness to "go to war" with Amazon. Told successor Board Chair to "go to hell" at August 2025 meeting.
Documented position based on public record.
Opposition Profile
Who is organizing.
4 source recordshigh infrastructure
Anti-DC candidates won November 2023 board elections
Planning Commission voted 6-2 against GEV recommendation
Horti-Group USA filed lawsuit challenging GEV approval
AWS withdrew from Louisa County (adjacent Virginia county)
Timeline
How it unfolded.
September 1, 2023
Board approved rezoning of Amazon parcels from agricultural to industrial.
January 1, 2024
New board canceled performance agreement with Amazon.
April 1, 2024
Board initiated downzoning of 893 acres back to agricultural.
March 25, 2025
BZA voted 4-0 to deny Amazon vested rights request.
April 24, 2025
Amazon filed circuit court appeal.
Known Risks
What could change.
Active risk factors documented in public record.
Active litigation over vested rights and downzoning
Not in core Northern Virginia DC infrastructure corridor
Anti-DC board elected and actively hostile
60+ data center bills in Virginia General Assembly
Recommendation
HIGH RISK — Score 34/100
High Risk. Active litigation, hostile board, downzoning proceedings, and statewide legislative uncertainty.
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About This Index
Published Q1 2026RealClear gives real estate development teams cited entitlement research before they commit serious diligence spend. This index scores U.S. markets across four dimensions of data-center entitlement risk: regulatory complexity, infrastructure readiness, community opposition density, and approval timeline. It is market-level triage, not a parcel score. Submit a specific parcel and you get a 24-hour cited brief whose claims trace to primary sources.
Read the full methodology20Markets Scored
15Index States
249+Source-Backed Claims
Ready to screen a property candidate? RealClear returns a 24-hour cited brief covering zoning posture, approval path, community posture, comparable outcomes, open questions, and next questions for counsel, civil, utility, or the local team.