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OngoingWorseningRisk Index — Q1 2026

King George County — Amazon Data Center

King George County, King George County, Virginia

34/100

HIGH RISK

Trajectory: Virginia General Assembly considered 60+ data center bills in 2026. New Governor Spanberger pledged scrutiny. Active downzoning and litigation.

Last updated 2026-03-29

King George County approved Amazon's rezoning, then elected a new Board of Supervisors that canceled the performance agreement, initiated a downzoning of 893 acres back to agricultural, and told Amazon's team to — according to the public record — "go to hell." The BZA denied vested rights 4-0. Amazon filed a circuit court appeal. The county chair said he was ready to "go to war."

Anti-DC candidates won the November 2023 Board elections. The new board canceled the performance agreement, downzoned Amazon's parcels, and denied vested rights.

BZA voted 4-0 to deny Amazon's vested rights request in March 2025. Amazon filed a circuit court appeal in April 2025.

Board Chair T.C. Collins publicly stated willingness to "go to war" with Amazon. This is the documented record — not hyperbole.

King George is in Dominion Energy territory but NOT in the core Northern Virginia data center infrastructure corridor. Grid capacity for multi-hundred-MW loads is uncertain.

Virginia is the epicenter of anti-DC legislation — 60+ bills in the 2026 General Assembly session.

Inside this score

How the 100 points break down.

Each dimension is scored out of its own weight, and the four add up to the score. A higher score is a clearer market-level path; it is not a likelihood of approval for a parcel.

  1. Regulatory Riskweight 30
    12 / 30
    What it reads, and where it stops

    Measures zoning classification, approval pathway type (by-right, CUP, rezoning), moratorium status, and regulatory trajectory. Higher scores indicate clearer regulatory paths.

    Reads the written route and the stated direction of a market's rules as of the edition date. It does not read a particular parcel's zoning, and a rule recorded here can change at the next meeting of the body.

  2. Infrastructure Readinessweight 25
    10 / 25
    What it reads, and where it stops

    Measures utility capacity, grid interconnection availability, water supply adequacy, and infrastructure investment commitments. Higher scores indicate better infrastructure readiness.

    Reads the utility, grid, water and investment record for the market. It does not confirm capacity at a given site, and delivery timelines for power and water are separate from entitlement risk.

  3. Opposition Densityweight 25
    8 / 25
    What it reads, and where it stops

    Measures organized opposition groups, petition scale, public hearing attendance, political consequences (elections, recalls), and legal challenges. Higher scores indicate less opposition.

    Reads organised opposition that shows on the public record: groups, petitions, hearings, elections and legal challenges. A quiet record is not evidence of support, and a loud one is not a count of votes.

  4. Approval Timelineweight 20
    4 / 20
    What it reads, and where it stops

    Measures historical approval durations, number of sequential approval steps, legal challenges affecting timeline, and demonstrated fast-track capabilities. Higher scores indicate faster approvals.

    Reads how long recorded approvals have taken and how many sequential steps they needed. Past duration is a record of what happened, not a schedule for the next application.

12 + 10 + 8 + 4 = 34 of 100 · High Risk

Four dimensions that determine entitlement feasibility.

Regulatory Risk

30 pts

12/30

Rezoning from agricultural required. County approved Dahlgren West unanimously but downzoned Amazon parcels. BZA denied vested rights request 4-0. Active circuit court litigation.

Score: 12/30. Rezoning approved, then downzoned. Vested rights denied 4-0. Active circuit court litigation. The county government is using every tool available to reverse its own prior approval.

Infrastructure Readiness

25 pts

10/25

Dominion Energy territory but NOT in core Northern Virginia DC infrastructure corridor. County considering BESS for additional power. Grid capacity uncertain for multi-hundred-MW loads.

Score: 10/25. Dominion Energy territory but outside the Northern Virginia DC corridor. No evidence of dedicated DC infrastructure or interconnection programs for this site.

Opposition Density

25 pts

8/25

Politically effective opposition: anti-DC candidates won November 2023 board elections, leading to performance agreement cancellation, downzoning initiation, and board infighting. Horti-Group USA filed lawsuit challenging GEV approval.

Score: 8/25. The opposition won the election. That is more consequential than any petition. Anti-DC board now controls the approval process. Horti-Group USA filed a separate lawsuit.

Approval Timeline

20 pts

4/20

Multi-year process risk: rezoning approved September 2023, performance agreement approved December 2023, canceled January 2024, downzoning initiated April 2024, BZA denial March 2025, circuit court petition April 2025.

Score: 4/20. Multi-year process: rezoning September 2023, performance agreement December 2023, canceled January 2024, downzoning April 2024, BZA denial March 2025, circuit court appeal April 2025. No resolution in sight.

What the record shows.

Board of Supervisors initiated downzoning of Amazon's 893 acres from industrial back to agricultural in April 2024.

Fredericksburg Free Press

BZA voted 4-0 to deny Amazon's vested rights determination request in March 2025.

FXB Advance: BZA denies Amazon

Amazon filed circuit court appeal in April 2025 challenging the BZA decision.

FXB Advance: Amazon Files Appeal

Board Chair T.C. Collins publicly signaled willingness to "go to war" with Amazon.

Fredericksburg Free Press

Who is organizing.

4 source recordshigh infrastructure

Anti-DC candidates won November 2023 board elections

Planning Commission voted 6-2 against GEV recommendation

Horti-Group USA filed lawsuit challenging GEV approval

AWS withdrew from Louisa County (adjacent Virginia county)

How it unfolded.

September 1, 2023

Board approved rezoning of Amazon parcels from agricultural to industrial.

January 1, 2024

New board canceled performance agreement with Amazon.

April 1, 2024

Board initiated downzoning of 893 acres back to agricultural.

March 25, 2025

BZA voted 4-0 to deny Amazon vested rights request.

April 24, 2025

Amazon filed circuit court appeal.

Dates on the record

Dates on the record.

As of the 29 Mar 2026 edition

No date after the 29 Mar 2026 edition is on the record for King George County.

Only dates that this market's own timeline gives. No outcome is named. The dated acts that have already happened are in the timeline above.

What could change.

Active risk factors documented in public record.

Active litigation over vested rights and downzoning

Not in core Northern Virginia DC infrastructure corridor

Anti-DC board elected and actively hostile

60+ data center bills in Virginia General Assembly

HIGH RISK — Score 34/100

High Risk. Active litigation, hostile board, downzoning proceedings, and statewide legislative uncertainty.

From the record

What the public record holds for King George County.

Each case file below is a verified public record with its sources attached; each note is a dated research note. They sit beside this market's score; they do not change it.

Case files elsewhere in Virginia

Sector page: Data centers

Get your site briefed before the surprises start.

Zoning posture, approval pathway, community risk, and comparable outcomes. The cited site-memo queue targets a delivery window confirmed at acceptance of the completed property submission. Complex or thin-record sites can take longer.

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About This Index

Published Q1 2026

RealClear gives real estate development teams cited entitlement research before they commit serious diligence spend. This index scores U.S. markets across four dimensions of data-center entitlement risk: regulatory complexity, infrastructure readiness, community opposition density, and approval timeline. It is market-level triage, not a parcel score. Submit a specific parcel and you get a reviewed, cited brief whose claims trace to primary sources.

Read the full methodology
20Markets Scored
15Index States
235+Source-Backed Claims

Ready to screen a property candidate? RealClear returns a reviewed, cited brief covering zoning posture, approval path, community posture, comparable outcomes, open questions, and next questions for counsel, civil, utility, or the local team. We confirm the delivery window when we accept your completed property submission. Complex or thin-record sites may require more research.

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