DeniedWorseningRisk Index — Q1 2026

San Marcos Data Center — Meta / Hays County

Name: Data Center Entitlement Risk Index Q1 2026
Creator: RealClear
Published: 2026-03-29

San Marcos, Hays County, Texas

8/100

CRITICAL RISK

Trajectory: Denied 3 times in 12 months. Emergency drought declaration. Organized coalition with 53 data center proposals tracked across Central Texas.

Last updated 2026-03-29

The Edwards Aquifer hit record lows. The governor declared a drought emergency. And a developer asked to build a data center that would consume 70,000 gallons a day in a town fighting over every drop. San Marcos denied it three times in 12 months. The final vote came at 2:14 AM after an 8-hour hearing with 130+ speakers. The overflow room erupted in cheers.

Three denials in 12 months: P&Z in March 2025, Council in August 2025, Council again in February 2026. No data center has ever been approved in San Marcos.

Water is the kill shot. The Edwards Aquifer is at historic lows, the governor declared a drought emergency, and the facility would draw 25+ million gallons annually.

The Central Texas Water Coalition is tracking 53 data center proposals across the region. Their executive director warned a data center "could run a municipality out of water."

4,000+ petition signatures. 130+ speakers at the final hearing. A surrounding-landowner petition triggered a supermajority requirement the developer could not clear.

County Judge Becerra proposed a moratorium on industrial water users consuming over 20,000 gallons/day. It was tabled on legality grounds but is expected to return.

Dimension Breakdown

Four dimensions that determine entitlement feasibility.

Regulatory Risk

30 pts

3/30

Data centers are not a permitted or conditional use in any San Marcos zone. Proposed site zoned Conservation/Cluster requiring both a Preferred Scenario Map amendment and rezoning to Light Industrial. P&Z Commission recommended denial. City Council denied twice (August 2025 and February 2026).

Score: 3/30. Data centers are not a permitted or conditional use in any San Marcos zone. The site was zoned Conservation/Cluster — requiring both a Preferred Scenario Map amendment and rezoning to Light Industrial. Three separate veto points. Three denials.

Infrastructure Readiness

25 pts

4/25

Edwards Aquifer at historic lows. Governor issued emergency drought declaration January 17, 2026. Proposed facility would consume 70,000 gallons/day, exceeding 25M gallons annually. Water supply from Crystal Clear SUD, not the city. At least 14 Central Texas counties in moderate to extreme drought.

Score: 4/25. The Edwards Aquifer — an EPA-designated sole-source drinking water supply — is at historic lows. Crystal Clear SUD's own policies warn water may be limited during extended drought. Power adjacency provides a minor offset, but water scarcity is structural.

Opposition Density

25 pts

1/25

Among the most organized opposition documented in any U.S. data center case. Three named groups: Central Texas Water Coalition (Shannon Hamilton, tracking 53 regional DC proposals), Data Center Action Coalition, Hays County Water Watchers. 130+ public comments at February 2026 hearing (2:14 AM vote after 8+ hours).

Score: 1/25. Among the most organized opposition documented in any U.S. market. Three named groups. 4,000+ petition signatures. 130+ public speakers. A landowner petition triggered the supermajority requirement.

Approval Timeline

20 pts

0/20

Denied 3 times in 12 months (March 2025 P&Z denial, August 2025 Council denial, February 2026 Council denial). Developer can refile after 6-month waiting period (earliest August 2026), but political environment unchanged.

Score: 0/20. Denied three times. The developer can refile after a 6-month waiting period (earliest August 2026), but the drought continues, the opposition is organized, and the political environment is unchanged.

Key Findings

What the record shows.

San Marcos City Council voted 5-2 to deny the Preferred Scenario Map amendment at 2:14 AM on February 18, 2026, after an 8+ hour hearing with 130+ public comments.

KUT Radio: San Marcos City Council blocks proposed data center

The Edwards Aquifer is at historic lows. Governor issued emergency drought declaration on January 17, 2026 affecting Hays County.

Spectrum News: Hays County data center proposition receives community pushback

Central Texas Water Coalition executive director Shannon Hamilton identified 53 data center proposals in the region.

KUT Radio: With 5 data centers on the horizon, Hays County water advocates see the fight as just beginning

Hays County Judge Ruben Becerra stated: "We are no longer just looking at a dry spell. We are looking at a potential catastrophe."

Hays Free Press: Hays County Judge Ruben Becerra tables water moratorium

Key Officials

The decision-makers on record.

Hays County Judge Ruben Becerra

County Judge

Opposed

Documented Record

Stated: "We are no longer just looking at a dry spell. We are looking at a potential catastrophe." After the denial: "I was so grateful that the community came together the way they did as a unified front."

Documented position based on public record.

San Marcos City Council

Legislative body

Opposed

Documented Record

Voted 5-2 to deny the data center on February 18, 2026. Previously denied August 19, 2025.

Documented position based on public record.

Commissioner Amy Meeks

P&Z Commissioner

Opposed

Documented Record

Stated: "We had well over 100 of our citizens saying, don't do this, we don't want this."

Documented position based on public record.

Opposition Profile

Who is organizing.

5 signalshigh infrastructure

Central Texas Water Coalition (Shannon Hamilton, ED) — tracking 53 regional DC proposals

Data Center Action Coalition — organized opposition coalition

Hays County Water Watchers — water-focused advocacy group

130+ public comments at February 2026 hearing over 8+ hours

Online petition opposing data centers in the region

Timeline

How it unfolded.

March 25, 2025

P&Z Commission recommended denial of PSA amendment and rezoning.

August 19, 2025

City Council denied the zoning request (PSA amendment failed to achieve required supermajority).

January 13, 2026

P&Z Commission voted 6-2 to approve on second application attempt.

February 18, 2026

City Council voted 5-2 to deny the PSA amendment at 2:14 AM after 8+ hour hearing.

Known Risks

What could change.

Active risk factors documented in public record.

Data centers not permitted in any San Marcos zone classification

Edwards Aquifer at historic lows with emergency drought declaration

Three organized opposition groups with sustained campaign

Project denied 3 times in 12 months with no path to reversal

Recommendation

CRITICAL RISK — Score 8/100

Critical Risk. Three denials in 12 months combined with emergency drought conditions and organized opposition make San Marcos effectively blocked for data center development.

Sources