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OngoingWorseningRisk Index — Q1 2026

Prince William County Digital Gateway

Prince William County, Prince William County, Virginia

12/100

CRITICAL RISK

Trajectory: Board voted March 3, 2026 to initiate zoning text amendment ending by-right data center development. Board denied Bristow Campus data center application. Planning Commission denied Bristow substation tied to data center growth.

Last updated 2026-03-29

A circuit court judge declared the rezonings void ab initio. The Court of Appeals barred construction. The Board of Supervisors voted to end by-right data center development. And at least 25 planned data centers were canceled across Virginia in a single year. The Prince William Digital Gateway is the most legally contested data center project in America — 27 hours of hearings, a 4-3-1 vote, and three years later, not a single building has gone up.

Rezonings declared void ab initio by Judge Irving in August 2025. The Court of Appeals stayed the judgment but barred all construction pending appeal.

The Board of Supervisors voted 4-3 in March 2026 to initiate a zoning text amendment that would end by-right data center approval entirely.

Three organized opposition groups with national reach: Oak Valley HOA (filed the lawsuit), American Battlefield Trust ("Stop the Digital Gateway"), and the Virginia Data Center Reform Coalition.

Virginia considered 60+ data center bills in the 2026 session, including HB 1515 proposing a statewide moratorium. The $1.9B data center tax break is under legislative attack.

Timeline exceeding 3 years with zero construction permitted. Oral arguments at the Court of Appeals were heard February 24, 2026.

Dimension Breakdown

Four dimensions that determine entitlement feasibility.

Regulatory Risk

30 pts

3/30

Rezonings declared void ab initio by Judge Irving in August 2025. Court of Appeals stayed the judgment but barred construction. Virginia General Assembly considered 60+ data center bills in 2026 session including HB 1515 proposing a statewide moratorium.

Score: 3/30. Rezonings voided by court. Board moving to eliminate by-right approval. Virginia's General Assembly considering 60+ DC bills. The regulatory pathway does not currently exist.

Infrastructure Readiness

25 pts

5/25

Northern Virginia has Dominion Energy infrastructure, but the Digital Gateway site faces specific challenges. Planning Commission denied Bristow substation in March 2026. Virginia statewide data center tax exemption under legislative threat ($1.9B in FY2025).

Score: 5/25. Dominion Energy territory, but the specific site faces challenges — Planning Commission denied the Bristow substation in March 2026. The $1.9B statewide DC tax exemption is under legislative threat.

Opposition Density

25 pts

0/25

One of the most heavily opposed DC projects documented. Three organized groups: Oak Valley HOA (filed the lawsuit producing void-ab-initio ruling), American Battlefield Trust (national campaign "Stop the Prince William Digital Gateway"), Coalition to Protect Prince William County (co-founded Virginia Data Center Reform Coalition).

Score: 0/25. Three groups with national campaign infrastructure. Oak Valley HOA's lawsuit produced the void-ab-initio ruling. American Battlefield Trust ran "Stop the Digital Gateway." The Virginia Data Center Reform Coalition was co-founded here.

Approval Timeline

20 pts

4/20

Rezonings filed, heard over 27+ hour meeting, approved 4-3-1 in December 2023, voided by circuit court August 2025, appealed — timeline exceeding 3 years with no construction permitted. Oral arguments at Court of Appeals February 24, 2026.

Score: 4/20. Three years and counting. Rezoning filed, heard over 27 hours, approved 4-3-1, voided, appealed, and still no construction. The appeals court decision could add another year.

Key Findings

What the record shows.

Circuit Court Judge Kimberly Irving declared the three Digital Gateway rezoning ordinances void ab initio in August 2025.

WTOP News: Judge voids Digital Gateway rezoning in Prince William County

Court of Appeals issued November 17, 2025 order staying enforcement but prohibiting construction pending appeal.

WTOP News: Digital Gateway data center builders barred from beginning construction

Board of County Supervisors voted 4-3 on March 3, 2026 to initiate zoning text amendment eliminating by-right approval for data centers.

Potomac Local: Prince William Supervisors Move to End By-Right Data Centers

At least 25 planned data centers were canceled across Virginia in 2025, nearly four times as many as any previous year.

VPM: Report highlights community pushback against $64B in US data centers

Key Officials

The decision-makers on record.

Prince William Board of County Supervisors

Board of Supervisors

Mixed

Documented Record

Approved Digital Gateway rezonings 4-3 with one abstention in December 2023. Current board voted 4-3 to end by-right DCs in March 2026.

Board composition and stance has shifted over time.

Supervisor Bob Weir

Gainesville District Supervisor (deceased)

Opposed

Documented Record

Opposed the Digital Gateway and introduced zoning text amendment to undo the overlay district. Died July 20, 2025.

Documented position based on public record.

Opposition Profile

Who is organizing.

4 signalshigh infrastructure

Oak Valley HOA — 11 residents filed the lawsuit producing the void-ab-initio ruling

American Battlefield Trust — national campaign "Stop the Prince William Digital Gateway"

Coalition to Protect Prince William County — co-founded Virginia Data Center Reform Coalition

25+ planned data centers canceled across Virginia in 2025

Timeline

How it unfolded.

December 13, 2023

Board of Supervisors approved Digital Gateway rezonings 4-3-1 after 27+ hour meeting.

August 1, 2025

Circuit Court Judge Irving declared rezonings void ab initio.

November 17, 2025

Court of Appeals stayed judgment but barred construction pending appeal.

February 24, 2026

Court of Appeals heard oral arguments in Oak Valley HOA v. Prince William County.

March 3, 2026

Board voted 4-3 to initiate zoning text amendment ending by-right data centers.

Known Risks

What could change.

Active risk factors documented in public record.

Rezonings declared void ab initio — no construction permitted pending appeal

Board actively moving to eliminate by-right data center approval

Three organized opposition groups with national reach

Timeline exceeding 3 years with no construction permitted

Recommendation

CRITICAL RISK — Score 12/100

Critical Risk. Rezonings voided by court, construction barred, Board moving to end by-right approvals. Do not commit budget until appeals court rules and zoning text amendment process concludes.

Get your site scored before the surprises start.

Zoning posture, approval pathway, community risk, and comparable outcomes. Sourced and scored by close of day, not months.

About This Index

RealClearPublished Q1 2026

RealClear is an entitlement intelligence platform for real estate development teams. This index scores U.S. markets across four dimensions of data center entitlement risk: regulatory complexity, infrastructure readiness, community opposition density, and approval timeline. Every claim is verified against primary source documents — meeting minutes, court filings, zoning codes, and legislative records.

Read the full methodology
20Markets Scored
15States Covered
249+Claims Verified

Ready to screen a live site? RealClear returns a scored intelligence brief — zoning posture, approval path, community risk, and comparable outcomes — cited to the primary source.