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OngoingWorseningRisk Index — Q1 2026

Prince William County Digital Gateway

Prince William County, Prince William County, Virginia

12/100

CRITICAL RISK

Trajectory: Board voted March 3, 2026 to initiate a zoning text amendment concerning data center uses permitted by right and by special use permit. Board denied Bristow Campus data center application. Planning Commission denied Bristow substation tied to data center growth.

Last updated 2026-03-29

A circuit court judge declared the rezonings void ab initio. The Court of Appeals barred construction. The Board of Supervisors initiated a zoning text amendment concerning data center uses permitted by right and by special use permit. And at least 25 planned data centers were canceled across Virginia in a single year. The Prince William Digital Gateway is the most legally contested data center project in America — 27 hours of hearings, a 4-3-1 vote, and three years later, not a single building has gone up.

Rezonings declared void ab initio by Judge Irving in August 2025. The Court of Appeals stayed the judgment but barred all construction pending appeal.

On March 3, 2026, the Board unanimously initiated a zoning text amendment concerning by-right and special-use data center rules, with Chair Jefferson abstaining. Separate Hornbaker rezoning and special-use approvals passed 4-3.

Three organized opposition groups with national reach: Oak Valley HOA (filed the lawsuit), American Battlefield Trust ("Stop the Digital Gateway"), and the Virginia Data Center Reform Coalition.

Virginia considered 60+ data center bills in the 2026 session, including HB 1515 proposing a statewide moratorium. The $1.9B data center tax break is under legislative attack.

Timeline exceeding 3 years with zero construction permitted. Oral arguments at the Court of Appeals were heard February 24, 2026.

Inside this score

How the 100 points break down.

Each dimension is scored out of its own weight, and the four add up to the score. A higher score is a clearer market-level path; it is not a likelihood of approval for a parcel.

  1. Regulatory Riskweight 30
    3 / 30
    What it reads, and where it stops

    Measures zoning classification, approval pathway type (by-right, CUP, rezoning), moratorium status, and regulatory trajectory. Higher scores indicate clearer regulatory paths.

    Reads the written route and the stated direction of a market's rules as of the edition date. It does not read a particular parcel's zoning, and a rule recorded here can change at the next meeting of the body.

  2. Infrastructure Readinessweight 25
    5 / 25
    What it reads, and where it stops

    Measures utility capacity, grid interconnection availability, water supply adequacy, and infrastructure investment commitments. Higher scores indicate better infrastructure readiness.

    Reads the utility, grid, water and investment record for the market. It does not confirm capacity at a given site, and delivery timelines for power and water are separate from entitlement risk.

  3. Opposition Densityweight 25
    0 / 25
    What it reads, and where it stops

    Measures organized opposition groups, petition scale, public hearing attendance, political consequences (elections, recalls), and legal challenges. Higher scores indicate less opposition.

    Reads organised opposition that shows on the public record: groups, petitions, hearings, elections and legal challenges. A quiet record is not evidence of support, and a loud one is not a count of votes.

  4. Approval Timelineweight 20
    4 / 20
    What it reads, and where it stops

    Measures historical approval durations, number of sequential approval steps, legal challenges affecting timeline, and demonstrated fast-track capabilities. Higher scores indicate faster approvals.

    Reads how long recorded approvals have taken and how many sequential steps they needed. Past duration is a record of what happened, not a schedule for the next application.

3 + 5 + 0 + 4 = 12 of 100 · Critical Risk

Four dimensions that determine entitlement feasibility.

Regulatory Risk

30 pts

3/30

Rezonings declared void ab initio by Judge Irving in August 2025. Court of Appeals stayed the judgment but barred construction. Virginia General Assembly considered 60+ data center bills in 2026 session including HB 1515 proposing a statewide moratorium.

Score: 3/30. Rezonings voided by court. Board initiated review of by-right and special-use data center rules. Virginia's General Assembly considering 60+ DC bills. The regulatory pathway does not currently exist.

Infrastructure Readiness

25 pts

5/25

Northern Virginia has Dominion Energy infrastructure, but the Digital Gateway site faces specific challenges. Planning Commission denied Bristow substation in March 2026. Virginia statewide data center tax exemption under legislative threat ($1.9B in FY2025).

Score: 5/25. Dominion Energy territory, but the specific site faces challenges — Planning Commission denied the Bristow substation in March 2026. The $1.9B statewide DC tax exemption is under legislative threat.

Opposition Density

25 pts

0/25

One of the most heavily opposed DC projects documented. Three organized groups: Oak Valley HOA (filed the lawsuit producing void-ab-initio ruling), American Battlefield Trust (national campaign "Stop the Prince William Digital Gateway"), Coalition to Protect Prince William County (co-founded Virginia Data Center Reform Coalition).

Score: 0/25. Three groups with national campaign infrastructure. Oak Valley HOA's lawsuit produced the void-ab-initio ruling. American Battlefield Trust ran "Stop the Digital Gateway." The Virginia Data Center Reform Coalition was co-founded here.

Approval Timeline

20 pts

4/20

Rezonings filed, heard over 27+ hour meeting, approved 4-3-1 in December 2023, voided by circuit court August 2025, appealed — timeline exceeding 3 years with no construction permitted. Oral arguments at Court of Appeals February 24, 2026.

Score: 4/20. Three years and counting. Rezoning filed, heard over 27 hours, approved 4-3-1, voided, appealed, and still no construction. The appeals court decision could add another year.

What the record shows.

Circuit Court Judge Kimberly Irving declared the three Digital Gateway rezoning ordinances void ab initio in August 2025.

WTOP News: Judge voids Digital Gateway rezoning in Prince William County

Court of Appeals issued November 17, 2025 order staying enforcement but prohibiting construction pending appeal.

WTOP News: Digital Gateway data center builders barred from beginning construction

Board of County Supervisors voted unanimously, with Chair Jefferson abstaining, on March 3, 2026 to initiate a zoning text amendment concerning data center uses permitted by right and by special use permit (Resolution 26-125). The separate Hornbaker rezoning and special use permit passed 4-3.

Prince William County Board Brief, March 3, 2026

At least 25 planned data centers were canceled across Virginia in 2025, nearly four times as many as any previous year.

VPM: Report highlights community pushback against $64B in US data centers

Dated acts on the public record.

Prince William Board of County Supervisors

Voted unanimously, with Chair Jefferson abstaining, to initiate a zoning text amendment concerning data center uses permitted by right and by special use permit.

Prince William County Board Brief, March 3, 2026 (opens in a new tab)

Who is organizing.

4 source recordshigh infrastructure

Oak Valley HOA — 11 residents filed the lawsuit producing the void-ab-initio ruling

American Battlefield Trust — national campaign "Stop the Prince William Digital Gateway"

Coalition to Protect Prince William County — co-founded Virginia Data Center Reform Coalition

25+ planned data centers canceled across Virginia in 2025

How it unfolded.

December 13, 2023

Board of Supervisors approved Digital Gateway rezonings 4-3-1 after 27+ hour meeting.

August 1, 2025

Circuit Court Judge Irving declared rezonings void ab initio.

November 17, 2025

Court of Appeals stayed judgment but barred construction pending appeal.

February 24, 2026

Court of Appeals heard oral arguments in Oak Valley HOA v. Prince William County.

March 3, 2026

Board voted unanimously, with Chair Jefferson abstaining, to initiate a zoning text amendment concerning data center uses permitted by right and by special use permit; separate Hornbaker rezoning and special use permit passed 4-3.

Dates on the record

Dates on the record.

As of the 29 Mar 2026 edition

No date after the 29 Mar 2026 edition is on the record for Prince William County.

Only dates that this market's own timeline gives. No outcome is named. The dated acts that have already happened are in the timeline above.

What could change.

Active risk factors documented in public record.

Rezonings declared void ab initio — no construction permitted pending appeal

Board initiated review of data center uses permitted by right and by special use permit

Three organized opposition groups with national reach

Timeline exceeding 3 years with no construction permitted

CRITICAL RISK — Score 12/100

Critical Risk. Rezonings voided by court, construction barred, Board reviewing by-right and special-use rules. Do not commit budget until appeals court rules and zoning text amendment process concludes.

From the record

What the public record holds for Prince William County.

Each case file below is a verified public record with its sources attached; each note is a dated research note. They sit beside this market's score; they do not change it.

Case files in Prince William County

Case files elsewhere in Virginia

Sector page: Data centers

Get your site briefed before the surprises start.

Zoning posture, approval pathway, community risk, and comparable outcomes. The cited site-memo queue targets a delivery window confirmed at acceptance of the completed property submission. Complex or thin-record sites can take longer.

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The site-memo queue targets a delivery window confirmed at acceptance of the completed property submission. Complex or thin-record sites can take longer.

About This Index

Published Q1 2026

RealClear gives real estate development teams cited entitlement research before they commit serious diligence spend. This index scores U.S. markets across four dimensions of data-center entitlement risk: regulatory complexity, infrastructure readiness, community opposition density, and approval timeline. It is market-level triage, not a parcel score. Submit a specific parcel and you get a reviewed, cited brief whose claims trace to primary sources.

Read the full methodology
20Markets Scored
15Index States
235+Source-Backed Claims

Ready to screen a property candidate? RealClear returns a reviewed, cited brief covering zoning posture, approval path, community posture, comparable outcomes, open questions, and next questions for counsel, civil, utility, or the local team. We confirm the delivery window when we accept your completed property submission. Complex or thin-record sites may require more research.

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