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OngoingWorseningRisk Index — Q1 2026
Oregon, Ohio — Capacity LLC Data Center
City of Oregon, Lucas County, Ohio
28/100
HIGH RISK
Trajectory: Anti-DC mayor elected November 2025 with 63% of vote. City administrator resigned January 2026. Constitutional amendment to ban DCs >25 MW advancing toward November 2026 ballot.
Last updated 2026-03-29
Community risk review · blocking-market signal
Oregon, Ohio — Capacity LLC Data Center's score is backed by the record of participants driving it.
RealClear computes a Community Impact Score (0–100) for every named participant in this jurisdiction's entitlement record. Blocking markets typically carry elected critical-stance CIS leaders at the top of the record — visible months before any filing would land on their hearing docket. Open the cross-referenced case files below for the full per-actor weight breakdown.
The residents of Oregon, Ohio did something rare: they turned a data center fight into a mayoral election. Steven Salander ran against data centers and won with 63% of the vote. The incumbent attributed his loss to supporting the project. The city administrator resigned weeks later. Now Ohio is advancing a constitutional amendment to ban data centers over 25 MW statewide.
An anti-data center candidate won the mayoral election with 63% of the vote. Data center politics now elect and remove officials in Ohio.
The development agreement produced a 3-2 vote with one abstention — and a legal dispute over whether it actually passed. The extension ordinance is contested in court.
Ohio's proposed constitutional amendment to ban data centers over 25 MW was certified by the Attorney General on March 16, 2026. If it reaches the ballot and passes, it would be the first state-level constitutional prohibition.
15-18 Ohio municipalities have enacted or are considering data center moratoriums. The opposition is not local — it is statewide.
828 MW of on-site natural gas generation proposed because PJM has documented capacity shortages starting 2026/2027. Data centers account for 97% of PJM load growth.
Dimension Breakdown
Four dimensions that determine entitlement feasibility.
Regulatory Risk
30 pts
No formal moratorium but functionally hostile. Development agreement required discretionary council approval. 3-2 vote with one abstention produced legal dispute over validity. 15-18 Ohio municipalities enacted or considering moratoriums.
Score: 10/30. No formal moratorium but functionally hostile. Anti-DC mayor elected. Development agreement legally contested. 15-18 Ohio municipalities with moratoriums.
Infrastructure Readiness
25 pts
828 MW of on-site natural gas generation proposed because grid power is insufficient. PJM documented capacity shortages starting 2026/2027 delivery year. Data centers account for 97% of PJM load growth.
Score: 8/25. Grid power is insufficient — 828 MW of on-site gas generation proposed. PJM documented capacity shortages starting 2026/2027. Data centers account for 97% of PJM regional load growth.
Opposition Density
25 pts
Opposition changed political leadership: incumbent Mayor Seferian defeated by Salander with 63% of vote. Seferian attributed his loss to data center support. Residents packed town hall at Fassett Junior High.
Score: 5/25. The opposition changed political leadership. That is the most consequential opposition outcome short of a court ruling. Residents packed a town hall at Fassett Junior High.
Approval Timeline
20 pts
Proposed 2024-2025, remains in contingency/extension phase as of March 2026. Extension ordinance legally contested. Ohio constitutional amendment could ban DCs statewide.
Score: 5/20. Proposed 2024-2025, still in contingency/extension phase as of March 2026. New mayor hostile. Extension ordinance legally contested. Ohio constitutional amendment could override everything.
Key Findings
What the record shows.
3-2 vote with one abstention on extension ordinance produced legal dispute over whether it passed.
WTOL: Split vote among councilAnti-DC mayoral candidate won with 63% of the vote in November 2025.
13ABC: Oregon voters elect new mayorOhio constitutional amendment to ban DCs >25 MW certified by AG on March 16, 2026.
Ballotpedia: Ohio Prohibition of Data Center Construction Amendment15-18 Ohio municipalities enacted or considering data center moratoriums.
The Statehouse News BureauKey Officials
The decision-makers on record.
Mayor Steven Salander
Mayor (elected November 2025)
Documented Record
Elected on anti-data center platform with 63% of vote, defeating incumbent Seferian.
Documented position based on public record.
Opposition Profile
Who is organizing.
2 source recordsmedium infrastructure
Residents packed Fassett Junior High School town hall
November 2025 mayoral election functioned as de facto data center referendum
Timeline
How it unfolded.
November 5, 2025
Anti-DC candidate Salander elected mayor with 63%.
January 31, 2026
City administrator Joel Mazur resigned.
March 16, 2026
Ohio AG certified constitutional amendment to ban DCs >25 MW.
Known Risks
What could change.
Active risk factors documented in public record.
Anti-DC mayor elected with 63% of vote
Extension ordinance legally contested
Ohio constitutional amendment advancing to ballot
15-18 municipalities with moratoriums statewide
Recommendation
HIGH RISK — Score 28/100
High Risk. New anti-DC mayor, legally contested extension, and Ohio constitutional amendment create compounding risk layers.
Get your site briefed before the surprises start.
Zoning posture, approval pathway, community risk, and comparable outcomes. Sourced and briefed within 24 hours, not months.
About This Index
Published Q1 2026RealClear gives real estate development teams cited entitlement research before they commit serious diligence spend. This index scores U.S. markets across four dimensions of data-center entitlement risk: regulatory complexity, infrastructure readiness, community opposition density, and approval timeline. It is market-level triage, not a parcel score. Submit a specific parcel and you get a 24-hour cited brief whose claims trace to primary sources.
Read the full methodology20Markets Scored
15Index States
249+Source-Backed Claims
Ready to screen a property candidate? RealClear returns a 24-hour cited brief covering zoning posture, approval path, community posture, comparable outcomes, open questions, and next questions for counsel, civil, utility, or the local team.