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OngoingWorseningRisk Index — Q1 2026

Oregon, Ohio — Capacity LLC Data Center

City of Oregon, Lucas County, Ohio

28/100

HIGH RISK

Trajectory: Anti-DC mayor elected November 2025 with 63% of vote. City administrator resigned January 2026. Constitutional amendment to ban DCs >25 MW advancing toward November 2026 ballot.

Last updated 2026-03-29

The residents of Oregon, Ohio did something rare: they turned a data center fight into a mayoral election. Steven Salander ran against data centers and won with 63% of the vote. The incumbent attributed his loss to supporting the project. The city administrator resigned weeks later. Now Ohio is advancing a constitutional amendment to ban data centers over 25 MW statewide.

An anti-data center candidate won the mayoral election with 63% of the vote. Data center politics now elect and remove officials in Ohio.

The development agreement produced a 3-2 vote with one abstention — and a legal dispute over whether it actually passed. The extension ordinance is contested in court.

Ohio's proposed constitutional amendment to ban data centers over 25 MW was certified by the Attorney General on March 16, 2026. If it reaches the ballot and passes, it would be the first state-level constitutional prohibition.

15-18 Ohio municipalities have enacted or are considering data center moratoriums. The opposition is not local — it is statewide.

828 MW of on-site natural gas generation proposed because PJM has documented capacity shortages starting 2026/2027. Data centers account for 97% of PJM load growth.

Inside this score

How the 100 points break down.

Each dimension is scored out of its own weight, and the four add up to the score. A higher score is a clearer market-level path; it is not a likelihood of approval for a parcel.

  1. Regulatory Riskweight 30
    10 / 30
    What it reads, and where it stops

    Measures zoning classification, approval pathway type (by-right, CUP, rezoning), moratorium status, and regulatory trajectory. Higher scores indicate clearer regulatory paths.

    Reads the written route and the stated direction of a market's rules as of the edition date. It does not read a particular parcel's zoning, and a rule recorded here can change at the next meeting of the body.

  2. Infrastructure Readinessweight 25
    8 / 25
    What it reads, and where it stops

    Measures utility capacity, grid interconnection availability, water supply adequacy, and infrastructure investment commitments. Higher scores indicate better infrastructure readiness.

    Reads the utility, grid, water and investment record for the market. It does not confirm capacity at a given site, and delivery timelines for power and water are separate from entitlement risk.

  3. Opposition Densityweight 25
    5 / 25
    What it reads, and where it stops

    Measures organized opposition groups, petition scale, public hearing attendance, political consequences (elections, recalls), and legal challenges. Higher scores indicate less opposition.

    Reads organised opposition that shows on the public record: groups, petitions, hearings, elections and legal challenges. A quiet record is not evidence of support, and a loud one is not a count of votes.

  4. Approval Timelineweight 20
    5 / 20
    What it reads, and where it stops

    Measures historical approval durations, number of sequential approval steps, legal challenges affecting timeline, and demonstrated fast-track capabilities. Higher scores indicate faster approvals.

    Reads how long recorded approvals have taken and how many sequential steps they needed. Past duration is a record of what happened, not a schedule for the next application.

10 + 8 + 5 + 5 = 28 of 100 · High Risk

Four dimensions that determine entitlement feasibility.

Regulatory Risk

30 pts

10/30

No formal moratorium but functionally hostile. Development agreement required discretionary council approval. 3-2 vote with one abstention produced legal dispute over validity. 15-18 Ohio municipalities enacted or considering moratoriums.

Score: 10/30. No formal moratorium but functionally hostile. Anti-DC mayor elected. Development agreement legally contested. 15-18 Ohio municipalities with moratoriums.

Infrastructure Readiness

25 pts

8/25

828 MW of on-site natural gas generation proposed because grid power is insufficient. PJM documented capacity shortages starting 2026/2027 delivery year. Data centers account for 97% of PJM load growth.

Score: 8/25. Grid power is insufficient — 828 MW of on-site gas generation proposed. PJM documented capacity shortages starting 2026/2027. Data centers account for 97% of PJM regional load growth.

Opposition Density

25 pts

5/25

Opposition changed political leadership: incumbent Mayor Seferian defeated by Salander with 63% of vote. Seferian attributed his loss to data center support. Residents packed town hall at Fassett Junior High.

Score: 5/25. The opposition changed political leadership. That is the most consequential opposition outcome short of a court ruling. Residents packed a town hall at Fassett Junior High.

Approval Timeline

20 pts

5/20

Proposed 2024-2025, remains in contingency/extension phase as of March 2026. Extension ordinance legally contested. Ohio constitutional amendment could ban DCs statewide.

Score: 5/20. Proposed 2024-2025, still in contingency/extension phase as of March 2026. New mayor hostile. Extension ordinance legally contested. Ohio constitutional amendment could override everything.

What the record shows.

3-2 vote with one abstention on extension ordinance produced legal dispute over whether it passed.

WTOL: Split vote among council

Anti-DC mayoral candidate won with 63% of the vote in November 2025.

13ABC: Oregon voters elect new mayor

Ohio constitutional amendment to ban DCs >25 MW certified by AG on March 16, 2026.

Ballotpedia: Ohio Prohibition of Data Center Construction Amendment

15-18 Ohio municipalities enacted or considering data center moratoriums.

The Statehouse News Bureau

Who is organizing.

2 source recordsmedium infrastructure

Residents packed Fassett Junior High School town hall

November 2025 mayoral election functioned as de facto data center referendum

How it unfolded.

November 5, 2025

Anti-DC candidate Salander elected mayor with 63%.

January 31, 2026

City administrator Joel Mazur resigned.

March 16, 2026

Ohio AG certified constitutional amendment to ban DCs >25 MW.

Dates on the record

Dates on the record.

As of the 29 Mar 2026 edition

No date after the 29 Mar 2026 edition is on the record for City of Oregon.

Only dates that this market's own timeline gives. No outcome is named. The dated acts that have already happened are in the timeline above.

What could change.

Active risk factors documented in public record.

Anti-DC mayor elected with 63% of vote

Extension ordinance legally contested

Ohio constitutional amendment advancing to ballot

15-18 municipalities with moratoriums statewide

HIGH RISK — Score 28/100

High Risk. New anti-DC mayor, legally contested extension, and Ohio constitutional amendment create compounding risk layers.

From the record

What the public record holds for City of Oregon.

Each case file below is a verified public record with its sources attached; each note is a dated research note. They sit beside this market's score; they do not change it.

Case files elsewhere in Ohio

Sector page: Data centers

Get your site briefed before the surprises start.

Zoning posture, approval pathway, community risk, and comparable outcomes. The cited site-memo queue targets a delivery window confirmed at acceptance of the completed property submission. Complex or thin-record sites can take longer.

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The site-memo queue targets a delivery window confirmed at acceptance of the completed property submission. Complex or thin-record sites can take longer.

About This Index

Published Q1 2026

RealClear gives real estate development teams cited entitlement research before they commit serious diligence spend. This index scores U.S. markets across four dimensions of data-center entitlement risk: regulatory complexity, infrastructure readiness, community opposition density, and approval timeline. It is market-level triage, not a parcel score. Submit a specific parcel and you get a reviewed, cited brief whose claims trace to primary sources.

Read the full methodology
20Markets Scored
15Index States
235+Source-Backed Claims

Ready to screen a property candidate? RealClear returns a reviewed, cited brief covering zoning posture, approval path, community posture, comparable outcomes, open questions, and next questions for counsel, civil, utility, or the local team. We confirm the delivery window when we accept your completed property submission. Complex or thin-record sites may require more research.

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