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OngoingWorseningRisk Index — Q1 2026

Oregon, Ohio — Capacity LLC Data Center

City of Oregon, Lucas County, Ohio

28/100

HIGH RISK

Trajectory: Anti-DC mayor elected November 2025 with 63% of vote. City administrator resigned January 2026. Constitutional amendment to ban DCs >25 MW advancing toward November 2026 ballot.

Last updated 2026-03-29

The residents of Oregon, Ohio did something rare: they turned a data center fight into a mayoral election. Steven Salander ran against data centers and won with 63% of the vote. The incumbent attributed his loss to supporting the project. The city administrator resigned weeks later. Now Ohio is advancing a constitutional amendment to ban data centers over 25 MW statewide.

An anti-data center candidate won the mayoral election with 63% of the vote. Data center politics now elect and remove officials in Ohio.

The development agreement produced a 3-2 vote with one abstention — and a legal dispute over whether it actually passed. The extension ordinance is contested in court.

Ohio's proposed constitutional amendment to ban data centers over 25 MW was certified by the Attorney General on March 16, 2026. If it reaches the ballot and passes, it would be the first state-level constitutional prohibition.

15-18 Ohio municipalities have enacted or are considering data center moratoriums. The opposition is not local — it is statewide.

828 MW of on-site natural gas generation proposed because PJM has documented capacity shortages starting 2026/2027. Data centers account for 97% of PJM load growth.

Dimension Breakdown

Four dimensions that determine entitlement feasibility.

Regulatory Risk

30 pts

10/30

No formal moratorium but functionally hostile. Development agreement required discretionary council approval. 3-2 vote with one abstention produced legal dispute over validity. 15-18 Ohio municipalities enacted or considering moratoriums.

Score: 10/30. No formal moratorium but functionally hostile. Anti-DC mayor elected. Development agreement legally contested. 15-18 Ohio municipalities with moratoriums.

Infrastructure Readiness

25 pts

8/25

828 MW of on-site natural gas generation proposed because grid power is insufficient. PJM documented capacity shortages starting 2026/2027 delivery year. Data centers account for 97% of PJM load growth.

Score: 8/25. Grid power is insufficient — 828 MW of on-site gas generation proposed. PJM documented capacity shortages starting 2026/2027. Data centers account for 97% of PJM regional load growth.

Opposition Density

25 pts

5/25

Opposition changed political leadership: incumbent Mayor Seferian defeated by Salander with 63% of vote. Seferian attributed his loss to data center support. Residents packed town hall at Fassett Junior High.

Score: 5/25. The opposition changed political leadership. That is the most consequential opposition outcome short of a court ruling. Residents packed a town hall at Fassett Junior High.

Approval Timeline

20 pts

5/20

Proposed 2024-2025, remains in contingency/extension phase as of March 2026. Extension ordinance legally contested. Ohio constitutional amendment could ban DCs statewide.

Score: 5/20. Proposed 2024-2025, still in contingency/extension phase as of March 2026. New mayor hostile. Extension ordinance legally contested. Ohio constitutional amendment could override everything.

Key Findings

What the record shows.

3-2 vote with one abstention on extension ordinance produced legal dispute over whether it passed.

WTOL: Split vote among council

Anti-DC mayoral candidate won with 63% of the vote in November 2025.

13ABC: Oregon voters elect new mayor

Ohio constitutional amendment to ban DCs >25 MW certified by AG on March 16, 2026.

Ballotpedia: Ohio Prohibition of Data Center Construction Amendment

15-18 Ohio municipalities enacted or considering data center moratoriums.

The Statehouse News Bureau

Key Officials

The decision-makers on record.

Mayor Steven Salander

Mayor (elected November 2025)

Opposed

Documented Record

Elected on anti-data center platform with 63% of vote, defeating incumbent Seferian.

Documented position based on public record.

Opposition Profile

Who is organizing.

2 signalsmedium infrastructure

Residents packed Fassett Junior High School town hall

November 2025 mayoral election functioned as de facto data center referendum

Timeline

How it unfolded.

November 5, 2025

Anti-DC candidate Salander elected mayor with 63%.

January 31, 2026

City administrator Joel Mazur resigned.

March 16, 2026

Ohio AG certified constitutional amendment to ban DCs >25 MW.

Known Risks

What could change.

Active risk factors documented in public record.

Anti-DC mayor elected with 63% of vote

Extension ordinance legally contested

Ohio constitutional amendment advancing to ballot

15-18 municipalities with moratoriums statewide

Recommendation

HIGH RISK — Score 28/100

High Risk. New anti-DC mayor, legally contested extension, and Ohio constitutional amendment create compounding risk layers.

Get your site scored before the surprises start.

Zoning posture, approval pathway, community risk, and comparable outcomes. Sourced and scored by close of day, not months.

About This Index

RealClearPublished Q1 2026

RealClear is an entitlement intelligence platform for real estate development teams. This index scores U.S. markets across four dimensions of data center entitlement risk: regulatory complexity, infrastructure readiness, community opposition density, and approval timeline. Every claim is verified against primary source documents — meeting minutes, court filings, zoning codes, and legislative records.

Read the full methodology
20Markets Scored
15States Covered
249+Claims Verified

Ready to screen a live site? RealClear returns a scored intelligence brief — zoning posture, approval path, community risk, and comparable outcomes — cited to the primary source.