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OngoingWorseningRisk Index — Q1 2026

Nobles County Data Center — Geronimo Energy

Nobles County, Nobles County, Minnesota

14/100

CRITICAL RISK

Trajectory: SF 4298 statewide moratorium bill introduced. SF 608 (effective June 2025) restricts enterprise data centers to industrial districts. Planning commission voted against text amendment allowing DCs.

Last updated 2026-03-29

Data centers are categorically prohibited in Nobles County's agricultural zones. The planning commission voted against a text amendment to change that. The county attorney said a moratorium would be "legally moot" because the existing ordinance already blocks data centers. And the Minnesota legislature introduced SF 4298 — a statewide moratorium bill — just in case anyone had ideas.

Data centers are prohibited in the Agricultural Preservation district. The planning commission voted against the text amendment to allow them. The zoning code is the moratorium.

Geronimo Energy wants to build a 400-1,000 MW campus with behind-the-meter 960 MW gas generation — because the rural grid cannot support the load. This is not a data center. It is a private power plant that happens to host servers.

SF 4298 proposes a statewide moratorium. SF 608 (already law) restricts data centers to industrial districts. MCEA has sued five Minnesota cities advancing DC projects.

Planning Commissioner Jay Clarke: "Why are we making exceptions for corporate America when we won't make exceptions for our own residents?"

Dimension Breakdown

Four dimensions that determine entitlement feasibility.

Regulatory Risk

30 pts

2/30

Data centers categorically prohibited in the Agricultural Preservation zoning district. Planning commission voted against text amendment to allow DCs as conditional use. SF 4298 proposes statewide moratorium.

Score: 2/30. Data centers are categorically prohibited in the Agricultural Preservation district. The planning commission recommended against the text amendment. SF 4298 proposes a statewide moratorium. SF 608 already restricts DCs to industrial districts.

Infrastructure Readiness

25 pts

5/25

Rural southwest Minnesota served by cooperative utilities. The 400-1,000 MW demand would require massive new transmission infrastructure that does not exist. Geronimo plans behind-the-meter 960 MW gas generation.

Score: 5/25. Rural southwest Minnesota has no infrastructure for 400-1,000 MW demand. Geronimo is proposing 960 MW of behind-the-meter gas generation because the grid cannot deliver it. This would make the facility one of the largest single-point emitters in Minnesota.

Opposition Density

25 pts

5/25

Change.org petition "Stop the Nobles County Mega Data Center" with 874 signatures. Planning commission voted against after dozens of residents testified. Minnesota Catholic Conference supports SF 4298. MCEA sued five Minnesota cities.

Score: 5/25. 874-signature petition, planning commission testimony, Minnesota Catholic Conference support for SF 4298, and MCEA lawsuits against five Minnesota cities. The opposition is institutional, not just grassroots.

Approval Timeline

20 pts

2/20

Requires text amendment (planning commission recommended against), AUAR environmental review (comment period through April 2026), SF 608 compliance, and conditional use permit. Geronimo targets 2027 groundbreaking, 2030 completion.

Score: 2/20. Text amendment (rejected), AUAR environmental review (comment period through April 2026), SF 608 compliance, conditional use permit. Geronimo targets 2027 groundbreaking — optimistic given the regulatory environment.

Key Findings

What the record shows.

Data centers categorically prohibited in Nobles County Agricultural Preservation zoning district.

Nobles County Planning and Zoning Commission

Planning commission voted against the text amendment allowing DCs on February 4, 2026.

Worthington Daily Globe

SF 4298 proposes statewide moratorium on new data center permits introduced March 9, 2026.

Minnesota Revisor of Statutes — SF 4298

County Attorney stated moratorium is legally moot because existing ordinance already prohibits data centers.

Worthington Daily Globe

Key Officials

The decision-makers on record.

Planning Commissioner Jay Clarke

Planning Commissioner

Opposed

Documented Record

Stated: "Why are we making exceptions for corporate America when we won't make exceptions for our own residents?"

Documented position based on public record.

Commissioner Robert Demuth

County Commissioner

Supported

Documented Record

Opposed the motion to recommend no change — supported allowing data centers. Was in the minority.

Documented position based on public record.

Opposition Profile

Who is organizing.

4 signalshigh infrastructure

Change.org petition "Stop the Nobles County Mega Data Center" — 874 signatures

Residents testified against at February 4, 2026 public hearing

Minnesota Catholic Conference formally supports SF 4298

MCEA sued five Minnesota cities advancing data center projects

Timeline

How it unfolded.

February 4, 2026

Planning commission voted against text amendment allowing DCs.

March 11, 2026

County board approved AUAR drafts 4-1.

April 16, 2026

AUAR comment period closes.

Known Risks

What could change.

Active risk factors documented in public record.

Data centers categorically prohibited in agricultural zones

Rural infrastructure insufficient for 400-1,000 MW demand

Statewide moratorium bill introduced

Planning commission recommended against text amendment

Recommendation

CRITICAL RISK — Score 14/100

Critical Risk. Data centers are prohibited by existing zoning. Planning commission and state legislature both trending restrictive.

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About This Index

RealClearPublished Q1 2026

RealClear is an entitlement intelligence platform for real estate development teams. This index scores U.S. markets across four dimensions of data center entitlement risk: regulatory complexity, infrastructure readiness, community opposition density, and approval timeline. Every claim is verified against primary source documents — meeting minutes, court filings, zoning codes, and legislative records.

Read the full methodology
20Markets Scored
15States Covered
249+Claims Verified

Ready to screen a live site? RealClear returns a scored intelligence brief — zoning posture, approval path, community risk, and comparable outcomes — cited to the primary source.