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OngoingWorseningRisk Index — Q1 2026
Mesa / Maricopa County — Arizona
Mesa, Maricopa County, Arizona
72/100
LOW RISK
Trajectory: Governor Hobbs called for repeal of DC tax incentives. Rep. Carter filed sunset legislation. Chandler (adjacent city) unanimously voted against a DC. Ordinance 5957 added new PAD overlay requirement.
Last updated 2026-03-29
Community risk review · approving-market signal
Mesa / Maricopa County — Arizona's score is backed by the record of participants driving it.
RealClear computes a Community Impact Score (0–100) for every named participant in this jurisdiction's entitlement record. Approving markets typically carry pro-development CIS leaders at the top of the record — elected executives, planning staff, and economic-development bodies with consistent posture across multiple projects. Open the cross-referenced case files below for the full per-actor weight breakdown.
Investment Thesis
Mesa has established DC zoning framework (Ordinance 5957) and SRP infrastructure commitment. 15 DCs built/approved/proposed on 1,500 acres. However, trajectory is Worsening due to statewide tax incentive repeal efforts and adjacent city rejections.
Fifteen data centers on 1,500 acres in under a decade. Mesa adopted Ordinance 5957 — a dedicated DC zoning category requiring PAD overlay in industrial zones — and SRP provides dedicated infrastructure including a 69 kV switchyard for Meta. But the trajectory is Worsening. Governor Hobbs called for repealing data center tax incentives: "The incentives have done their job." The adjacent city of Chandler unanimously rejected an AI data center. Mesa is the clearest market in the index with a Worsening trajectory — and the gap is closing.
Mesa adopted Ordinance 5957 (July 2025) creating a dedicated DC use category. DCs prohibited except in PAD overlay with industrial base zone. Waiver available for pre-existing parcels.
SRP (Salt River Project) provides dedicated infrastructure: 69 kV switchyard for Meta, 230 kV double-circuit transmission, record demand accommodation. Google has 430+ MW carbon-free energy.
Governor Hobbs and Rep. Carter are pursuing repeal/sunset of Arizona's data center tax incentive program (ARS 41-1519). This is the most direct executive-level threat to DC incentives in any Clearest market.
Chandler (adjacent city) unanimously voted against an AI data center — a source-record event for Mesa developers.
CyrusOne approved 4-3. Google DC received low marks from P&Z. Approvals are increasingly contested even when they succeed.
Dimension Breakdown
How this market scores across four dimensions.
Regulatory Risk
30 pts
Ordinance 5957 (July 2025) created dedicated DC use category. DCs prohibited except in PAD overlay with GI/LI/PEP/HI base zone. Waiver available for pre-existing parcels. 6-0 council approval.
Score: 20/30. Ordinance 5957 provides a clear framework, but it also ended the looser pre-2025 regime. PAD overlay requires council approval (discretionary). Favorable but tightening.
Infrastructure Readiness
25 pts
SRP provides dedicated infrastructure: Prickly Pear 69kV switchyard (for Meta), 230kV double-circuit transmission. Google 430+ MW carbon-free energy. SRP set new demand record.
Score: 21/25. SRP is investing heavily in DC infrastructure. Google has 430+ MW clean energy. SRP set a new demand record. Water data is the gap — municipal-level DC water usage is not published.
Opposition Density
25 pts
Present but has not organized into cohesive coalition or blocked any project. CyrusOne approved 4-3. Google DC received low marks from P&Z Board but was approved. Chandler (adjacent city) unanimously rejected a DC — regional precedent event and regional spillover effect.
Score: 16/25. Present but not cohesive. CyrusOne approved 4-3. Google got low P&Z marks. Chandler rejection is a source-record event. No blocking outcomes in Mesa, but the pattern is tightening.
Approval Timeline
20 pts
PAD overlay requires City Council approval (discretionary). EdgeCore approved on consent agenda January 2024 (pre-Ordinance 5957). Post-5957, EdgeCore modification approved 6-0 in March 2026. Track record of efficient processing.
Score: 15/20. PAD overlay requires council approval. EdgeCore approved on consent agenda (January 2024, pre-Ordinance 5957). Post-5957, EdgeCore modification approved 6-0 March 2026. Track record is efficient but discretionary.
Key Findings
What the evidence supports.
Mesa adopted Ordinance 5957 (July 2025) creating dedicated DC use category requiring PAD overlay in industrial zones.
Mesa Ordinance 5957Governor Hobbs called for repeal of Arizona DC tax incentive program: "The incentives have done their job."
KAWC15 data centers built, approved, or proposed on 1,500 acres in Mesa in under a decade.
KJZZChandler, Arizona City Council unanimously voted against an AI data center — regional warning for Mesa.
Fox BusinessIncentives & Programs
Why developers are choosing here.
Arizona Computer Data Center Program (ARS 41-1519)
Transaction privilege tax and use tax exemptions for qualifying DCs investing $25M+. Up to 10 years of exemptions. Governor Hobbs and Rep. Carter pursuing repeal/sunset.
SourceGoogle $1B Mesa DC with $16M property tax break over 25 years
Government Property Lease Excise Tax arrangement approved 2019.
SourceKnown Risks
No market is risk-free. Here's what to watch.
The credibility of a favorable score depends on honest risk disclosure. These risks are documented in public records.
WORSENING trajectory — Governor calling for tax incentive repeal
Adjacent Chandler unanimously rejected a DC
NBC News investigation questioned water-intensive DCs in desert
Google DC received low marks from P&Z Board on one application
Data Gaps
Transparent about what we do not yet know.
- Water usage data for Mesa DCs not available at municipal level
Recommendation
LOW RISK — Score 72/100
Standard process expected but monitor closely. Mesa's favorable score may degrade as statewide tax incentive repeal efforts advance.
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About This Index
Published Q1 2026RealClear gives real estate development teams cited entitlement research before they commit serious diligence spend. This index scores U.S. markets across four dimensions of data-center entitlement risk: regulatory complexity, infrastructure readiness, community opposition density, and approval timeline. It is market-level triage, not a parcel score. Submit a specific parcel and you get a 24-hour cited brief whose claims trace to primary sources.
Read the full methodology20Markets Scored
15Index States
249+Source-Backed Claims
Ready to screen a property candidate? RealClear returns a 24-hour cited brief covering zoning posture, approval path, community posture, comparable outcomes, open questions, and next questions for counsel, civil, utility, or the local team.