Q1 2026 Risk Index
10 Markets Where the Path to Approval Is Clearest
These markets have figured it out. Dedicated zoning codes, by-right approval pathways, utility partnerships, and political environments where data centers are an economic strategy — not a culture war. The 10 Clearest markets scored between 70 and 88, but even here, the picture is not uniformly bright. Mesa is Worsening as the Arizona governor calls for tax incentive repeal. The only market actively getting easier is Temple, Texas.
- Two markets operate under regulatory structures that eliminate standard entitlement friction entirely: Pryor, Oklahoma (public trust, score 88) and Storey County, Nevada (locked-in Development Agreement since 2000, score 86).
- Only 1 of 10 Clearest markets is Improving (Temple, TX). Seven are Stable. Mesa and one other are Worsening — even "clear" markets face political headwinds.
- Indiana appears on both lists. Lebanon/Boone County scores 78 (LEAP innovation district) while Franklin Township scores 13 (Google withdrawal). Same state, 80 miles apart, 65-point gap.
- Infrastructure is the hidden bottleneck in clear markets. NV Energy at TRIC can only add 10-20 MW annually. OPPD in Papillion projects demand may outpace generation by 2035.
- Tax incentive backlash is the emerging threat. Arizona's governor, Iowa's legislature, and Nebraska's county boards are all questioning data center subsidies.
Methodology Note
Markets are scored across four weighted dimensions: Regulatory Risk (30 pts), Infrastructure Readiness (25 pts), Opposition Density (25 pts), and Approval Timeline (20 pts). Scores reflect entitlement risk as of Q1 2026 and may change rapidly. A favorable score means the evidence supports a navigable path — not a guaranteed outcome. Full methodology →
Ranked by Score
10 markets. Evidence-backed.
Every score includes known risks and data gaps. No market is risk-free.
Pryor / Mayes County — Oklahoma (MidAmerica Industrial Park)
Pryor / MidAmerica Industrial Park, Oklahoma
Clear Path
Google has expanded at MidAmerica Industrial Park seven times since 2011 without a single documented opposition hearing.
MAIP operates under a public trust with regulatory sovereignty that eliminates standard entitlement friction. Google has invested $4.4B+ since 2011 with no opposition. The park has 50 MGD water capacity with 32 MGD available and 1,480+ MW of dedicated power.
Incentives: Google $9B Oklahoma investment (August 2025) | Computer Services Sales Tax Exemption (68 O.S. Section 1357) | Pryor school district property values increased 957% since 2009
- Water demand: 1.1B gallons consumed July 2023-June 2024
- SB 609 eliminated future DC eligibility for ad valorem exemption (Google grandfathered)
- Tulsa approved 9-month DC construction moratorium (does not affect MAIP)
Storey County TRIC — Nevada
Storey County (TRIC), Nevada
Clear Path
A Development Agreement locked in since February 2000 — before the iPhone, before cloud computing, before anyone imagined what a hyperscale data center would be.
TRIC's Development Agreement provides a locked-in regulatory framework since 2000 with pre-approved DC use, 7-day grading permits, and 30-day building permits. Five on-site power plants with 900+ MW.
Incentives: NRS 360.754 — partial abatement of personal property taxes (up to 75%) and sales/use tax reduction to 2%
- NV Energy can only add 10-20 MW annually under current infrastructure
- Sierra Club Toiyabe Chapter advocates for statewide DC regulation (targeting Reno, not TRIC)
Abilene / Taylor County — Texas
Abilene, Texas
Clear Path
Abilene annexed 800 acres, wrote a dedicated Data Building Code, created a DC-specific utility tariff, approved a 1,375-acre industrial park unanimously, and the state legislature rejected an attempt to repeal data center tax exemptions by a 6-3 vote.
Abilene has a proven fast-track approval process with the DCOA coordinating annexation and incentives. 1.2GW ERCOT interconnection approved. Texas counties legally cannot impose moratoriums.
Incentives: 85% property tax abatement for 10 years (+ second 10-year period) | Lancium partnership — $2.4B projected investment over 20 years
- Scattered resident complaints about traffic and noise
- Oracle protested $200M property tax valuation
- SB 6 requires large-load customers to demonstrate commitment for transmission
Papillion / Sarpy County — Nebraska
Papillion, Nebraska
Clear Path
Sarpy County did something almost no jurisdiction has done: it put "Data Centers" in the zoning code by name.
Sarpy County explicitly lists data centers in its zoning code. OPPD ranked #2 nationally for DC power share. No organized opposition. Meta has expanded 5 times since 2016.
Incentives: ImagiNE Nebraska Act (2020) — sales tax exemptions on servers and equipment | Google $4.7B total Nebraska investment since 2019
- Sarpy County Board opposed state tax incentive bill LB209 — loses $5.8M in property tax annually
- Data center demand may outpace OPPD generation additions by 2035
Clarksville / Montgomery County — Tennessee
Clarksville, Tennessee
Clear Path
Google has operated in Clarksville since 2019.
By-right approval in industrial zones, TVA power infrastructure, zero organized opposition, and Google operating successfully since 2019. Tennessee has expanded DC incentives.
Incentives: 20-year PILOT agreement with Google (December 2015) | HB 2182 — expanded DC sales/use tax exemptions (2024) | Google community grants — $600,000+ since 2018
- TVA may keep Cumberland Fossil Plant open due to DC demand — environmental scrutiny
- Sierra Club press release (March 2026) criticized TVA's gas plant reliance
Cheyenne / Laramie County — Wyoming
Cheyenne, Wyoming
Low Risk
Wyoming has a dedicated Data Building Code, DC-specific utility tariffs, and a legislature that rejected an attempt to repeal data center tax exemptions by 6-3.
Cheyenne has a dedicated Data Building Code, DC-specific utility tariffs, proactive annexation policy, and no organized opposition. Wyoming House rejected attempt to repeal DC tax exemptions 6-3.
Incentives: Wyoming data center sales tax exemption ($5M+ investment) | Microsoft $3.1B cumulative investment since 2012
- Hyndman Homesites HOA raised concerns about construction impacts
- Farmers worried about water usage
- Electric rate increase fears documented
Lebanon / Boone County — Indiana (LEAP Innovation District)
Lebanon, Indiana
Low Risk
Eighty miles from Franklin Township — where Google withdrew under community pressure — Meta broke ground on a $10B campus inside the LEAP Innovation District on February 11, 2026.
LEAP PUD provides by-right DC approval in the Industrial Mega Site subdistrict. Meta investing $10B+, Eli Lilly co-locating, state providing $60M infrastructure funding. Opposition exists but has not blocked any project.
Incentives: Meta 10-year, 50% real property tax abatement + TIF district | Indiana Data Center Sales Tax Exemption | Meta community investments — $1M annually for 20 years to Boone REMC Community Fund
- Two organized opposition groups (CAC and Boone County Preservation Group)
- Legal challenge to annexation filed January 2023
- WVPA 1,200 MW MISO request outcome uncertain
- Indiana moratorium wave in other counties signals statewide tension
Council Bluffs / Pottawattamie County — Iowa
Council Bluffs, Iowa
Low Risk
Google has been in Council Bluffs for 18 years.
Google's 18-year presence ($6.8B+ invested) has established Council Bluffs as a mature DC market with supportive local government and MidAmerican Energy infrastructure.
Incentives: Google $6.8B+ invested since 2007 | Iowa DC sales/use tax incentive — 100% exemption on qualifying items
- HF 976 modified (limited) existing indefinite DC exemptions
- One 111-signature petition against Edged project
Mesa / Maricopa County — Arizona
Mesa, Arizona
Low Risk
Fifteen data centers on 1,500 acres in under a decade.
Mesa has established DC zoning framework (Ordinance 5957) and SRP infrastructure commitment. 15 DCs built/approved/proposed on 1,500 acres. However, trajectory is Worsening due to statewide tax incentive repeal efforts and adjacent city rejections.
Incentives: Arizona Computer Data Center Program (ARS 41-1519) | Google $1B Mesa DC with $16M property tax break over 25 years
- WORSENING trajectory — Governor calling for tax incentive repeal
- Adjacent Chandler unanimously rejected a DC
- NBC News investigation questioned water-intensive DCs in desert
- Google DC received low marks from P&Z Board on one application
Temple / Bell County — Texas
Temple, Texas
Low Risk
Temple is the only market in the entire index with an Improving trajectory.
Temple demonstrates an improving trajectory with multiple unanimous approvals, active construction, and $800M Meta investment. Rezoning is required but consistently approved. Only market with "Improving" trajectory.
Incentives: Bell County 75% ad valorem tax abatement for Meta (Polmer LLC) | Texas Chapter 312 property tax abatements
- Rezoning from AG to PD-LI required for every project
- Facebook opposition group exists but has not achieved blocking outcomes
- 13 speakers opposed utility service agreement at one meeting
- Oncor interconnection queue has 600+ requests (state level)
Important Limitations
A "Clearest" ranking does not constitute legal advice, a guarantee of approval, or a recommendation to proceed without independent due diligence. These scores reflect publicly available evidence as of Q1 2026. Markets change rapidly — moratoriums, elections, utility capacity constraints, and opposition campaigns can materially alter any market's risk profile within weeks.
Verify all claims independently before making investment decisions. AI-generated analysis may contain errors.
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10 markets scored. Every claim sourced to public records.
