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ApprovedStableRisk Index — Q1 2026

Papillion / Sarpy County — Nebraska

Papillion, Sarpy County, Nebraska

84/100

CLEAR PATH

Trajectory: No moratorium activity, no significant zoning changes, no new opposition in last 12 months.

Last updated 2026-03-29

Investment Thesis

Sarpy County explicitly lists data centers in its zoning code. OPPD ranked #2 nationally for DC power share. No organized opposition. Meta has expanded 5 times since 2016.

Sarpy County did something almost no jurisdiction has done: it put "Data Centers" in the zoning code by name. Section 22 of the IL district lists them explicitly. Meta has expanded five times since 2016. Google broke ground on a 260-acre campus. OPPD — ranked second nationally for data center power share — approved 2.5 GW of new generation. The neighbors, according to the Omaha World-Herald, "have only positive things to say."

Sarpy County Section 22 explicitly lists "Data Centers" as a use category in the IL district. This is not a general industrial allowance — it is a named, permitted use.

OPPD is the standout utility. S&P ranked Omaha #2 nationally after Northern Virginia for DC power. Data centers consumed 21% of OPPD electricity sales in 2024 (up from 1% in 2018).

Meta campus: 3.6M+ SF across 8+ buildings with multiple expansion phases since 2016. Google: building permit for 281,792 SF on 260 acres.

ImagiNE Nebraska Act provides sales tax exemptions on servers and equipment. A $1B DC investment can claim $12.4M in tax incentives.

The one political risk: Sarpy County Board opposed state tax incentive bill LB209, citing $5.8M in annual property tax revenue lost to abatements.

Inside this score

How the 100 points break down.

Each dimension is scored out of its own weight, and the four add up to the score. A higher score is a clearer market-level path; it is not a likelihood of approval for a parcel.

  1. Regulatory Riskweight 30
    24 / 30
    What it reads, and where it stops

    Measures zoning classification, approval pathway type (by-right, CUP, rezoning), moratorium status, and regulatory trajectory. Higher scores indicate clearer regulatory paths.

    Reads the written route and the stated direction of a market's rules as of the edition date. It does not read a particular parcel's zoning, and a rule recorded here can change at the next meeting of the body.

  2. Infrastructure Readinessweight 25
    22 / 25
    What it reads, and where it stops

    Measures utility capacity, grid interconnection availability, water supply adequacy, and infrastructure investment commitments. Higher scores indicate better infrastructure readiness.

    Reads the utility, grid, water and investment record for the market. It does not confirm capacity at a given site, and delivery timelines for power and water are separate from entitlement risk.

  3. Opposition Densityweight 25
    22 / 25
    What it reads, and where it stops

    Measures organized opposition groups, petition scale, public hearing attendance, political consequences (elections, recalls), and legal challenges. Higher scores indicate less opposition.

    Reads organised opposition that shows on the public record: groups, petitions, hearings, elections and legal challenges. A quiet record is not evidence of support, and a loud one is not a count of votes.

  4. Approval Timelineweight 20
    16 / 20
    What it reads, and where it stops

    Measures historical approval durations, number of sequential approval steps, legal challenges affecting timeline, and demonstrated fast-track capabilities. Higher scores indicate faster approvals.

    Reads how long recorded approvals have taken and how many sequential steps they needed. Past duration is a record of what happened, not a schedule for the next application.

24 + 22 + 22 + 16 = 84 of 100 · Clear Path

How this market scores across four dimensions.

Regulatory Risk

30 pts

24/30

Data centers explicitly listed in Sarpy County IL (Light Industrial) district Section 22. Eight+ data centers approved and operating. Papillion GI district accommodates industrial uses.

Score: 24/30. Explicitly listed in the zoning code. 8+ data centers approved and operating. No moratorium, no restrictive amendments.

Infrastructure Readiness

25 pts

22/25

OPPD is among most DC-ready utilities. S&P ranked Omaha #2 after Northern Virginia. Board approved 2.5 GW new generation (August 2023) with $5B capital plan. Data centers consumed 21% of OPPD electricity sales in 2024.

Score: 22/25. OPPD: 2.5 GW new generation approved, $5B capital plan. #2 national ranking for DC power share. But demand may outpace generation by 2035.

Opposition Density

25 pts

22/25

No organized opposition. One property owner raised concerns during Meta approval. Omaha World-Herald: "neighbors have only positive things to say."

Score: 22/25. No organized opposition. Neighbors "have only positive things to say." One property owner raised concerns during Meta approval.

Approval Timeline

20 pts

16/20

Meta went from announcement (April 2016) to operational (2019) — roughly 3 years. Google obtained building permit for 281,792 SF facility on 260 acres.

Score: 16/20. Meta: announcement to operational in approximately 3 years. Google obtained building permit for 281,792 SF facility. Efficient processing but not as fast as Abilene or TRIC.

What the evidence supports.

Sarpy County Section 22 explicitly lists "Data Centers" as a use category in the IL district.

Sarpy County Zoning Regulations

Data centers consumed 21% of OPPD electricity sales in 2024, up from 1% in 2018. OPPD approved 2.5 GW of new generation.

WOWT

Meta campus expanded to 3.6M+ SF across 8+ buildings with multiple expansion phases since 2016.

Meta Data Centers blog

Why developers are choosing here.

ImagiNE Nebraska Act (2020) — sales tax exemptions on servers and equipment

Investment and wage tax credits. A $1B DC investment can claim $12.4M in tax incentives.

Source

Google $4.7B total Nebraska investment since 2019

Across Papillion, Omaha, and Lincoln. Over 79,000 Nebraskans trained in digital skills.

Source

Dates on the record

Dates on the record.

As of the 29 Mar 2026 edition

No date after the 29 Mar 2026 edition is on the record for Papillion.

Only dates that this market's own timeline gives. No outcome is named.

No market is risk-free. Here's what to watch.

The credibility of a favorable score depends on honest risk disclosure. These risks are documented in public records.

Sarpy County Board opposed state tax incentive bill LB209 — loses $5.8M in property tax annually

Data center demand may outpace OPPD generation additions by 2035

CLEAR PATH — Score 84/100

Favorable market. Explicit zoning code listing, OPPD's massive generation pipeline, and no organized opposition.

From the record

What the public record holds for Papillion.

No verified case file or Jurisdiction Data note is tied to this market yet. The score stands on the sources cited on this page.

Sector page: Data centers

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About This Index

Published Q1 2026

RealClear gives real estate development teams cited entitlement research before they commit serious diligence spend. This index scores U.S. markets across four dimensions of data-center entitlement risk: regulatory complexity, infrastructure readiness, community opposition density, and approval timeline. It is market-level triage, not a parcel score. Submit a specific parcel and you get a reviewed, cited brief whose claims trace to primary sources.

Read the full methodology
20Markets Scored
15Index States
235+Source-Backed Claims

Ready to screen a property candidate? RealClear returns a reviewed, cited brief covering zoning posture, approval path, community posture, comparable outcomes, open questions, and next questions for counsel, civil, utility, or the local team. We confirm the delivery window when we accept your completed property submission. Complex or thin-record sites may require more research.

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