Case File · Ellendale, Dickey County, North Dakota
400 MW. $11 billion. No fight.
Applied Digital's Polaris Forge 1 campus in Ellendale, North Dakota is contracted at 400 MW to CoreWeave across three approximately 15-year leases worth ~$11 billion in anticipated revenue. Building 1 reached Phase II Ready for Service — fully energized at 100 MW — in November 2025. Zero documented community opposition. The rural-Plains exemplar of what hyperscale AI looks like when it avoids organized resistance.
Cited Ellendale campus read: 78/100 before Applied Digital broke ground.
400 MW
Contracted
~$11B
Lease Revenue
~15 yrs
Lease Term
Nov 2025
Bldg 1 RFS
1+ GW
Campus Potential
78/100
RealClear Score
Ellendale, North Dakota · 2022 — 2027
The complete timeline.
From site selection to 100 MW live, with a contracted Phase II schedule through 2027. The absence of opposition is itself the story.
2022–2023
Applied Digital selects Ellendale, North Dakota for AI factory build
Applied Digital (NASDAQ: APLD) identifies Ellendale, Dickey County, North Dakota as the target site for its flagship AI data-center campus. The siting logic: rural parcel with grid interconnect capacity, supportive local posture, and material distance from urban opposition patterns emerging in Arizona and Virginia.
June 2, 2025
CoreWeave lease agreements — ~$7 billion contracted revenue
Applied Digital announces two approximately 15-year lease agreements with CoreWeave for 250 MW of critical IT load at the Ellendale campus — 100 MW for the first building and 150 MW for the second, with an option for an additional 150 MW. Anticipated total revenue across these two leases is approximately $7 billion. First 100 MW facility expected Ready for Service Q4 2025; second 150 MW facility expected mid-2026.
June 2025
Campus naming — 'Polaris Forge 1'
Applied Digital formalizes the Polaris Forge branding for its Ellendale campus, designating it Polaris Forge 1. The company subsequently announces Polaris Forge 2 — a $3 billion, 280 MW campus near Harwood, North Dakota, reinforcing the rural-Plains AI data-center strategy.
August 29, 2025
Third lease finalized: 400 MW total, ~$11 billion contracted revenue
Applied Digital finalizes CoreWeave's option for a third, 150 MW building at Polaris Forge 1, bringing total contracted capacity across all three leases to 400 MW and total anticipated contracted lease revenue to approximately $11 billion. The third building is planned for Ready for Service in 2027.
October 2025
Phase I Ready for Service — Building 1, 50 MW
Applied Digital achieves Ready for Service for Phase I of Building 1 at Polaris Forge 1 — 50 MW — on time per the contractual schedule with CoreWeave.
November 2025
Phase II Ready for Service — Building 1 fully energized at 100 MW
Applied Digital announces successful Ready for Service for Phase II of Building 1, with the building now operating at its full 100 MW critical IT load. This completes the first of three contracted buildings at the campus and marks the campus's transition from construction to commercial operation.
August 2025
Polaris Forge 2 announced — $3B, 280 MW near Harwood
Applied Digital announces plans to break ground in September 2025 on Polaris Forge 2, a $3 billion, 280 MW campus near Harwood, North Dakota — scalable beyond 280 MW. Polaris Forge 2 subsequently executes a ~$5 billion lease with a separate U.S.-based investment-grade hyperscaler, bringing total contracted revenue across both campuses to approximately $16 billion.
Q4 2025 — 2027
Phased RFS schedule through 2027
Under the CoreWeave contracted schedule, the second 150 MW building is expected to be operational in mid-2026, and the third 150 MW building in 2027. The campus's commercial ramp is staged and contractually bound, not speculative.
The Parties Behind the Build
Developer, tenant, lender, and a quiet county.
The notable finding is what's missing: no organized opposition coalition, no adjacent-HOA lawsuit, no lobbying group. The absence is the signal.
Wes Cummins
CEO, Applied Digital
Documented Record
Led the Ellendale site selection, CoreWeave lease negotiations, and the broader Polaris Forge naming. Public investor materials detail the 400 MW contracted capacity and ~$11B total anticipated lease revenue.
Applied Digital's execution under Cummins has converted a rural North Dakota parcel into a commercially operating AI factory. His willingness to signal the campus as part of a larger Polaris Forge program — with 2 and subsequent sites — commits Applied Digital to a rural-Plains strategic playbook.
CoreWeave, Inc.
Primary Tenant
Documented Record
Signed approximately 15-year leases for 250 MW of critical IT load with an option for an additional 150 MW, per Applied Digital's June 2, 2025 announcement. Total anticipated revenue ~$7 billion across the lease term.
CoreWeave's willingness to commit 15-year, 400-MW lease capacity is the single strongest commercial validation of the Ellendale site. But this also concentrates tenant risk: CoreWeave's financial trajectory becomes Applied Digital's risk profile.
Macquarie Asset Management
Project Finance Partner
Documented Record
Applied Digital announced a second $787.5 million draw from a Macquarie Asset Management credit facility to advance the AI factory buildout.
Macquarie's participation de-risks the capital stack materially. Institutional infrastructure lenders underwriting AI data-center debt is a structural validation of the asset class's investment grade.
Dickey County, ND Commission
Local Governing Body
Ellendale, ND
Documented Record
Approved the site plan and permits for the Polaris Forge 1 campus with no documented community opposition in the public record.
The absence of documented friction is itself a finding. A pre-filing analysis of Dickey County would note zero organized advocacy opposition in public records — the opposite of the Arizona, Virginia, and Indiana patterns.
State of North Dakota
State-level Policy Environment
Documented Record
North Dakota Monitor (August 18, 2025) coverage of Polaris Forge 2 signals state-level support for data-center development including explicit framing of AI capex as economic-development infrastructure.
The state posture is actively pro-siting. No state-level moratorium or restriction is in effect. A pre-filing analysis would score North Dakota in the top quintile nationally for DC siting political posture.
NVIDIA (Silicon Partner)
GPU Supplier
Documented Record
CoreWeave's capacity at Polaris Forge 1 is designed to host NVIDIA-architecture AI training workloads under the long-term lease.
NVIDIA is a counterparty to the demand story, not the real estate. Its indirect participation — through CoreWeave's compute stack — is a structural tell that the tenancy is AI-grade.
Why Rural Plains Work
Low-density demographics. Pro-siting state.
Ellendale's viability is not coincidence — it is a structural fit between rural-Plains demographics and hyperscale AI's political risk profile.
Zero Organized Opposition
No advocacy group, HOA, or preservation lawsuit in record
A Community risk review scan of public records produces zero organized opposition to Polaris Forge 1. Contrast with Arizona (No Desert Data Center), Virginia (American Battlefield Trust, Oak Valley HOA), Indiana (Citizens Action Coalition), Central Texas (Central Texas Water Coalition). The absence of an opposition ecosystem is itself the pre-filing finding that matters most.
Pro-Siting State Policy Environment
North Dakota · no moratorium, no pending restrictions
North Dakota has no state-level DC moratoriums, no pending legislation restricting data-center water or power use, and a state policy posture that actively supports industrial siting. The Polaris Forge 2 announcement in August 2025 was framed as state economic-development news, not as a contested land-use event.
Institutional Capital Stack Alignment
Macquarie Asset Management · $787.5M draw
The $787.5 million second draw from Macquarie Asset Management is an institutional infrastructure lender's validation of the project. Macquarie's underwriting standards are among the most disciplined in the sector — the draw itself is a third-party seal on Polaris Forge 1's commercial thesis.
The Pre-Filing Research
What RealClear finds at Ellendale.
Low-opposition geography, a contracted hyperscaler tenant, and institutional infrastructure lender alignment.
Site Analysis
Applied Digital Polaris Forge 1
Ellendale, Dickey County, ND — 400 MW contracted to CoreWeave
Favorable Source Records
- Zero documented community opposition — rural-Plains path of least resistance
- CoreWeave 15-year leases across 400 MW (~$11B contracted revenue)
- Building 1 fully energized at 100 MW November 2025
- On-site substation energized Q4 2025 — grid integration de-risked
- Campus designed for 400 MW, 1+ GW under load study
Approval Pathway
Dickey County industrial use CLEAR
Tenant Risk
Execution Signal
Single-Tenant Risk
Recommendation
STRONG GO. Ellendale is the exemplar of a rural-Plains DC siting strategy that avoids the organized-opposition pattern now visible in Arizona, Virginia, Indiana, and Central Texas. Zero documented community opposition. CoreWeave's 15-year contracted lease underwrites the campus. Principal residual risk is tenant concentration — CoreWeave's own financial trajectory becomes Applied Digital's risk.
The Pre-Flight Checklist
Six favorable source-record factors. All publicly available.
Every structural advantage that made Ellendale a successful siting was in the public record before Applied Digital committed capital.
Rural-Plains demographics — no adjacent-HOA opposition
Community risk reviewEllendale and surrounding Dickey County have demographics and land-use patterns that structurally do not produce the adjacent-HOA opposition pattern that killed Prince William Digital Gateway or Chesapeake's first DC. Community risk review scanning confirms zero organized opposition to Polaris Forge 1.
Pro-siting state policy posture
State PolicyNorth Dakota has no state-level DC moratoriums, no pending restrictive legislation on water or power use, and an active state economic-development narrative around AI infrastructure. A pre-filing analysis would score North Dakota in the top quintile for state political posture.
CoreWeave 15-year lease — single-tenant anchor
Tenant SignalCoreWeave's ~15-year, 400 MW contracted lease at ~$11B total anticipated revenue underwrites the campus commercially. Single-tenant stabilization is a strong but tenant-concentrated signal: a Approval path review would flag this as positive short-term but model tenant-financial-trajectory risk on a 15-year hold.
On-site substation energized — grid integration de-risked
Power AnalysisThe on-site substation energized in Q4 2025 is a material execution signal. Interconnection queue risk — the structural barrier that is pausing Microsoft Licking County — is eliminated when the substation is built and energized. Pre-filing source review of the campus's grid-integration pathway surfaces low risk.
Institutional lender (Macquarie) on capital stack
Capital SignalThe $787.5M second draw from Macquarie Asset Management is a third-party validation of the underlying project economics. Macquarie's infrastructure-debt underwriting standards are among the most disciplined in the sector — the draw is itself a pre-filing-equivalent diligence signal.
Campus-brand program scaling — Polaris Forge 2 operational signal
Operator StrategyApplied Digital's August 2025 announcement of Polaris Forge 2 ($3B, 280 MW near Harwood ND, with a ~$5B separate hyperscaler lease) signals that the Ellendale playbook is repeatable. A pre-filing analysis would read the program-level commitment as a durable operator strategy, not a one-site bet.
What Happened Next
The aftermath.
Polaris Forge 1 is in commercial operation. Polaris Forge 2 is under construction. And the rural-Plains DC siting model is being replicated elsewhere.
Building 1
100 MW Fully Energized — November 2025
Phase II Ready for Service completed November 2025, with Building 1 operating at its full 100 MW critical IT load. The first of three contracted buildings is now in commercial operation for CoreWeave.
Building 2
150 MW — Mid-2026 Target
Under the CoreWeave contracted schedule, the second 150 MW building is expected to be operational in mid-2026. Construction is advancing on schedule.
Program Expansion
Polaris Forge 2 — $3B, 280 MW
Applied Digital broke ground on Polaris Forge 2 near Harwood, ND in September 2025 — a $3B, 280 MW campus with a separate ~$5B hyperscaler lease, bringing total contracted revenue across both campuses to approximately $16 billion.
The Lesson
Low-Opposition Geography Is a Strategy, Not Luck
The rural-Plains siting strategy is deliberate, not accidental. Operators looking to avoid the Arizona / Virginia / Indiana / Central Texas opposition patterns should screen for comparable North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, or Nebraska sites where no organized DC opposition coalition exists yet.
This Is Entitlement Research
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Ellendale is the control case: the Arizona / Virginia / Indiana denials aren't about data centers, they're about siting. Pick the right jurisdiction and the fight doesn't start.
RealClear identifies low-opposition geographies before capital is committed — across North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Nebraska, and other rural-Plains markets.
Cited research summary · Not legal advice · Verify independently before making investment decisions